This one comes through gritted teeth, considering the Buckeyes were our pre-playoff choice to win the CFP and have looked the part of a team of destiny following a pair of blowout victories. Even so, out of purely value-driven principle, we have to side with the underdog. This is because the live look-ahead line in this matchup was Ohio State -1.5, so we’re snagging nearly an extra touchdown of value. The short-memory public will undoubtedly pile relentlessly on the Buckeyes, which gives us a chance to grab the coveted +7, if available. Texas can equalize Ohio State in terms of pure talent and has the default home-turf edge at AT&T Stadium. Both clubs boast top-5 scoring defensive units, enhancing the value of the points.

The look-ahead line on this game had the Lions as a slight favorite, so we'll take the window of value on Penn State as an underdog. On paper this rates as a pick'em and three's no doubt the Irish have looked daunting in their first 2 CFP games. Both top-5 defensive units are essentially a push. But the Penn State offense, which features three high draft picks at QB, TE and RB, gives the Lions an edge in firepower. We're banking on that factor being the difference.

Arguably the Irish’s most impressive victory came in Week 1 on the road against a sturdy Texas A&M club. So, they have proved they can win against a quality opponent in a difficult environment. The injury loss of Georgia starting QB Carson Beck will make the Georgia offense a bit more one-dimensional, which should also favor Notre Dame. Even so, we saw the short-handed Bulldogs find a way to outlast a more talented Texas club in the SEC title game, and we’re predicting they do so again before a Superdome crowd that will likely grant them a default home-turf advantage on a neutral site.

It's telling that the Buckeyes are favored on the road in this rematch despite losing the first matchup 32-31 in Eugene. They were felled by eight penalties and two big turnovers, and the clock ran out on a potential game-winning drive. We anticipate Ohio State building on perhaps its most complete effort of the season in a first-round drubbing of Tennessee and advancing to the CFP semifinals.

When the Sun Devils started 6-1, I thought they were performing well above expectation but also caught more than their share of breaks and were a major regression candidate down the stretch. Turns out, they were just getting started. They closed out the season with six consecutive victories , including the destruction of a solid Iowa State club for the Big 12 title after fetching preseason odds of 125/1 to do so. The Longhorns are probably in for a little more resistance than they have bargained for following their 38-24 first-round win over Clemson. We’d love to grab the key number of +14 in this spot but can’t resist taking the points with a viable underdog.

If this were a regular-season game at a neutral site, the Cardinals would be a moderate favorite and the only side we would consider. But Louisville will be missing QB Tyler Shough, its top two defensive lineman and a top WR to NFL draft preparation. Washington is remarkably intact for a power-conference program and needs this win to help offset an otherwise disappointing season. The Huskies rate to be a strong play in this one.

Both teams are missing some key parts. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson, the Big Ten rushing leader, and Missouri WR Luther Burden are both headed to the NFL and expected to be high draft picks. But a stout Iowa defense that is allowing just 17.1 ppg (No. 9 nationally) should be the difference.

There might normally be a letdown concern for Army following its historic 11-win season that included a conference championship. But the Knights are coming off a blowout loss to rival Navy in which they lost the Commander-In-Chief trophy amid their worst performance of the season. Louisiana Tech will play the role of bowl savior after transfer=portal-gutted Marshall withdrew. The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, but this is a five-win team whose only victory over a winning opponent came against Western Kentucky. Moreover, the Bulldogs lost a good share of their top run defenders to the portal as well. This one has all the makings of another Army blowout we’ve become accustomed to seeing this year against lesser competition.

In a bow, season filled with lackluster games because of team gutted by the transfer portal or coaching carousel, this one rates as a throwback bowl showcase -- the kind you used to reserve holiday time for as a must-watch. Colorado has protected the future of its star players by taking out insurance against potential injuries and BYU is expected to be at full strength as well. The Cougars had two losses by nine combined points that kept them out of the CFP. Their top-20 defense will be the stingiest the Buffaloes have faced all year and that factor will be the difference.

Much of the college football world snickered when Ryan Day's club lost at home to rival Michigan as 3-TD favorite. The proverbial stock on the Buckeyes is down, but that might not be a bad thing. They carry less pressure, along with the country's top-ranked defense and plenty of playmakers, into this CFP showdown. A win will merit a rematch with top-ranked Oregon. The Buckeyes can wash away the sour taste of the Michigan disaster with a decisive victory Saturday.

The Tigers were given a postseason lifeline because of Miami’s stunning upset loss to Syracuse, and they predictably made the most of it. Their dramatic 34-31 walk-off victory over upstart SMU put them into the 12-team playoff and, again, we don’t expect Clemson to go quietly. Although the Longhorns might have the most overall talent in the country, they still struggle on the biggest of stages. This was evident in last year’s loss to Washington in the four-team playoff, and Texas also fell 22-19 against short-handed Georgia in the SEC title game. This is far from Dabo Swinney's most talented Clemson club, but it is a resilient one. With a house-money mentality in tow, look for the Tigers to push this to the wire.

During its 10-game win streak following a loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish played just one top-15 opponent and was taken to the wire by Louisville. Upstart Indiana has similarly been knocked for a modest strength of schedule but the Hoosiers have defeated some solid opponents. Moreover, their top-ranked rushing defense (70.8 ypg) should give Notre Dame a challenge. look for the Hoosiers to fight until the finish and cover the number.

This game serves as a stark example of the transfer portal/coaching carousel challenge for bowls. UNLV coach Barry Odom immediately bolted for Purdue on the heels of a breakout season, and the program's leadership is uncertain. On the other side, Cal lost QB Fernando Mendoza to the portal. But the majority of a defense that allowed 21 or fewer points 5 times is healthy and expected to play. Moreover, a big chunk of Cal's roster is from Southern California, where this bowl is played. For these reasons, we will give the Bears a slight edge.

This is perhaps the most vulnerable the Bulldogs have looked under coach Kirby Smart. Regular defensive lapses and a disappointing season from QB Carson Beck, who entered the season as a Heisman favorite, led to an 11-2 regular-season record. Razor-thin wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech have kept the Bulldogs from falling out of the 12-team playoff rankings, but a loss Saturday could put their status in doubt. Even so, their 30-15 win over Texas remains their signature performance, holding the Longhorns to 259 yards of total offense and forcing four turnovers to overcome Beck’s three interceptions. If a similar version of Georgia reappears amid a de facto home-field advantage in the SEC title game, the Bulldogs should get the best of this rematch.

This has become one of college football's more intriguing novelty rivalries of late as the perpetually downtrodden Rebels have turned a corner and become Boise State’s primary challenger for Mountain West supremacy. However, the Broncos should capture their fifth conference title in the last 10 years. In their regular-season meeting in Las Vegas, the Rebels limited Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to 128 yards while consistently selling out at the line of scrimmage to slow him down. UNLV dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams totaled 284 yards and three total TDs. Even so, Boise State used a late clock-eating drive to seal a 29-24 victory. Now on their home turf, look for the Broncos to again create enough separation for another win and cover.