Leaning into the better rebound margin and three-point defense...

Sparty Unders is a way of life, and I suspect it's our last chance to ride that wave this season. No reason to change now. When the total is under 152, Michigan State is 20-6 to the under. Sparty is under in 11 of its last 13 games and 14 of the last 17. They slow it down and throw 4 bigs at you and can't shoot threes. Auburn isn't as run-and-gun as some other top SEC schools, they have settled down in tourney play and are under in 4 of their last 5. They just went under by 12.5 vs a Big 10 school (Michigan). Auburn can get a little nervy and out of sorts offensively.

It's Duke's highest total yet, but that's what happens when you play Alabama in do or die game. Both teams can score at will and the Tide play no D. Duke is without a top rebounder and defender and has been a straight over team with Cooper Flagg healthy - 9-1 over last 10 with Flagg fully available and 12-3 over in last 15. Either team scoring 85+ is not out of character. Bama is 9-4 over last 13 games and 8-3 over on the season when total is 173+. The Tide is 13-7-1 over with equal rest and 6-3 over in neutral settings. Perhaps this drops more but as of now things tipping back up towards 174. Duke could drop 100 again.

Houston can suffocate you defensively and Purdue's shooting tends to be very hit or miss. Next weekend could be quite different than some of their recent displays. They will have to fight for their shots much more against this tall and athletic opponent and over time their 3-point shooting away from home has suffered. Boilers under in 3 of their last 4 and 9 of their last 12 road/neutral games. Boilers play at a slog's pace (298th in KenPom pace) and Cougars make them look like track stars (359th). Don't expect a lot of second chance shots for Boilers. This should be an old-school game, played in the low 60s.

Sparty unders are real, especially when Tom Izzo has time to prepare (22-9 under with 2+ days off). The offense remains inconsistent, with only one gifted scorer in Jase Richardson. But 10 kids play and they all defend. Their four bigs will excel at trading fouls and rim defense here. It's a way of life for them. Sparty is under in 13 of its last 16 games. They are under in 8 of last 10 road/neutral games. The Rebels have athletes to keep up when State runs to transition attempts. Sparty's lack of three ball game should help us here. Rebs 91 points vs. Iowa State was an anomaly. Their prior 8 road/neutral games averaged 72 points. This might be played in 60s.

This will be a different challenge from a skill and length perspective for the Razorbacks - akin to the SEC grind, where they were not top tier. This isn't poor-shooting St John's. Boogie Fland played a lot more than expected, which could present problems moving forward. ARK can't shoot the three ball and the Red Raiders are strong defending the paint. Tech is a top 50 rebounding margin team and ARK is just 196th. Tech is top 17 in KenPom O and D ratings, and will keep the Razors from running. Tech is 36th in EFG% and Arknsas just 116th. JT Toppin and Darrion Williams should be able to get enough of what they want inside, and Raiders superior deep shooting will cover 5.5.

Duke covered 10 of last 12 games, both failures with Cooper Flagg hurt. They have covered 14 of their last 20 overall, making a habit of scoring 90+ points and blowing teams out. Arizona brings a different challenge than most ACC teams, but it's one Duke is up for. Seventeen of their last 21 wins are by 10 points or more. It's what they do. The Devils have the best player on the court, more than enough long-range options, and they will dictate this game is played at a more moderate pace that should frustrate the Wildcats. Duke is 4th in NCAA in assist/turnover ratio and AZ is 51st. Those extra quality possessions and protecting the ball lead to double-digit wins.

Making a calculated gamble by the time I wake up tomorrow this has moved, as it was -185 offshore quickly after the match-up was set. Probably a bonkers scoring game, which no one does better than Alabama (okay Florida might do it better since they can defend) and BYU will be hard pressed to keep from getting in foul trouble and having its depth tested around the rim. ALA over 60% on 2-point shots. ALA is 21-6 since Dec 1 and all but one loss came to a team still in the tourney (Missouri). A defense-optional game is precisely their kind of jam and last time Cougars faced a team like this they got blown out by Houston. Opponent suits 'Bama's strengths just fine.

I'd lay up to 9.5 with the Terps. Much has been made about their weak bench, but it showed up big for them in the tourney opener. They got key starters some rest. The inside combo of Julian Reese and Derik Queen will dictate this game. Colorado State lacks that kind of interior presence. The Rams' 6-11 sophomore, Nikola Djapa, has 32 rebounds all season. The Rams lack the Terps' seasoning, as they play a ton of underclassmen. Colorado State's negative assist-to-turnover ratio will be an issue versus an elite defensive team (No. 6 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom). Maryland creates lots of turnovers, can press on a moment's notice, and uses an array of defensive looks that can confound unfamiliar opponents.

These are high-scoring teams, but will Illinois shoot 3 ball that well again? Hmm. Poor road/neutral shooting all season. This is 2nd highest total for ILL all season and KY, playing wild games in SEC, played only 4 games that closed higher. ILL 6-6 O/U outside Big 10. KY 4-2 under in neutral setting. Unders were 13-3 Fri and tend to be the play this time of year. Expect these teams to feel each other out early. Nerves will lead to missed shots. 2 of last 21 ILL games are over this total - they allowed Iowa to score 94 and Duke to score 110 to put those games over 170. Three of last 12 and 4 of last 16 KY games are over this.

Duke is top 4 on O and D. Not content to win; they want to smash people. and with Cooper Flagg back that what I expect to happen here. The have covered 9 of 11 - blowing a huge lead in 3rd game vs UNC without Flagg. I don't believe Baylor can keep pace, 320th in KenPom pace. If they have to play from behind - they will - it's gonna be a problem. Baylor is middling shooting the 3-ball and were worst team in Big 12 defending the deep ball. That's a problem. Baylor is not special on boards and need 2nd chances. Devils have 23 wins by 12+ points and 8 by 11 or less. Duke 11-1 ATS when laying between 8-19 points.

Gators covered 12 of last 14, letting up vs Norfolk State late and slipping up at UGA. They get up for all the big ones and covered 11 of those 12 games by multiple possessions. This is a flawed Huskies team that got by on reputation and Vegas favored them too much - they are 4-6 ATS vs the last 10 NCAA tourney teams they have faced. Huskies don't lose by double digits that often but this Florida team is special. Twelve of their last 15 wins are by 10+ and two were by 9. Trend has been favorites covering fairly easy. Florida is too balanced. UCONN (13-17-1 ATS) vulnerble defensively; they will need to pick up pace big time here and that's not them.

Auburn has been less than impressive for several weeks now and their first half vs ALA ST was fairly dreadful and they seem too loose-goosey for my liking. They've failed to cover 5 straight and 7 of 9 and failed to cover all 7 of those games by 3+ points. Jays have covered 4 of 6, played SEC teams very tough early in season, beat St John's, won at UCONN are a top 40 KenPom O and D team, hold teams to 70 or less, excel on boards with a legit rebounding margin and had best assist/TO rate in Big East. Creighton has bodies and can get physical and basically won a road game with east vs Louisville. Tigers get too three-happy; inconsistent lately.

I still don't buy Michigan even on his little four-game run they are on. They turn the ball over way too much, are prone to scoring lags and their backcourt is pretty hit or miss. Athletic teams like the Aggies will present problems and they will be up for the challenge of the Wolverines' two big men. This is usually right around where Big 10 teams hit a wall and all the extra hoop MICH played running to a conference tourney title might not help them much here. I think A&M will be a real problem for any top seed. Battle tested. Aggies will likely cover here (14-7-1 ATS after a win), but I'm playing it a little safer. Turnovers will doom MICH.

Johnnies offense continued to evolve as the season went along and they are in ripe form against a fairly middling Arkansas team. SEC second-class getting picked off pretty early in this tourney, eh? Razorbacks can't rebound well (12th in SEC in reb margin) and facing a team that owns the glass. ARK really suffers to get offensive rebounds and second chance shots and are bad from 3 (33%). STJ allows just 31% from behind arc and are elite defensively overall. Johnies cover 5 straight and 11-3-1 ATS in road/neutral spots. ARK 7-10 ATS in R/N. STJ can bully them some here and are the super team at both ends of the court. SJU averaging 81.6/G over last 5 games.