Jason's Picks (12 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Designed runs against the Ravens defense go nowhere. even if the Bills get jumbo with 6 OL as they do nearly twice as much as any team, good luck with that (BAL 3rd in EPA and 4th in Success Rate vs jumbo runs). Off script Allen is their best mode of attack and his legs will be active. He's run for 46+ yards in 6 of his last 8 playoff games. Bills suffered badly with not enough option runs for Allen, and him not activating his legs enough in their first meeting. Lesson learned here with the season on the line. Close games bring this out even more in him and went over this in blowout of Broncos last week.
Ravens ran 13 times with 6 OL vs Houston a few weeks back and 15 times last week. Why do I bring this up? Because they have become increasingly comfortable with Andrews in a Tush Push look with extra heavy personnel on the field. And Bills are light in the ass in their front 7 and I expect a sledgehammer approach here. They want to bully and flex on the Bills, keep Lamar healthy, and use Derrick Henry to push Andrews up the gut in short yardage spots. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get 3-5 carries in this game.
He is a machine and he destroyed the Bills in the first meeting. They can't handle runs with a FB on field (30th in NFL at 5.9/carry) and Ravens ran for over 200 yards with FB on field in first meeting with BUF. BAL also now using 6 OL runs more than any team in NFL and Henry is far more comfortable in pistol runs now than he was in the first meeting (he was almost exclusively under center in TEN). Bills have a light front 7 and even with 8 in the box they can't hold up to a back of this size and a 300-pound FB and 260-pound blocking TE. Add in the element of Lamar and it's pick your poison.