One of these teams is far better suited to handle a back-to-back...

The net ratings tell quite a story about these two teams the last 3 weeks ...

The Wolves have it cooking on offense now and look fully adjusted from their pre-season trade. They are sharing the ball and hitting their open shots. They have scored 115+ in 10 of last 12 games, averaging 119/G in that span. Magic are a strong defensive team but allowing 107/G last 5 on the road and their inability to score can have an impact on the other end of the court. Wolves 5th in NBA O rating last 12 games and playing looser at home. Getting Brunson and Divincenzo going has been huge for the scope of their offense.

I expect the Cavs to cover this game. Donovan Mitchell is expected back and they have been up for every challenge this season. They have won 10 straight on the road and covered 7 of them. They are 14-5-1 ATS vs the West and an elite road team, while Memphis has not been nearly as good on both ends of the court the last 6 weeks as they were earlier in the season. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 and failed to cover 8 straight at home. They have failed to cover 7 straight vs top 10 teams, failing to cover by 10, 3, 11.5, 3, 3, 7 and 10 points. Cavs are too deep for them.

Dallas is without all of their rim protectors and you might think it shows up vs opposing bigs, but it does not. They are stout defending centers but get destroyed by guards and penetrating guards around the basket. Green is averaging 23/G vs DAL this season, had his stroke going Wed and DAL allowing 71 PPG to guards over last 15 G (24th), shooting 49% from floor (29th). 36 of those 71/G are coming from guards in the paint and Green leads Rockets guards with 5 attempts per game within 5 feet of the hoop. Mavs are short on players, which shows up big on D, and short on size. Fred VanVleet is still rounding into from an injury absence; not hunting layups much lately.

The Celtics haven't been a great cover team, but far better on the road than home and beat Miami by 19 there last time (and won y 18 at Boston). Boston is looking to bounce back from a home loss to OKC. Even without KP, too much for lowly Heat. Boston won 8 of last 9 on the road; 7 wins by 7+. BOS 5th in net rating last 15 games while MIA 19th. Heat very limited offensively. Miami has lost 12-16, by an average of 8.8 points. Himmy Butler trade may have ruined what's left of their culture. Heat fail to cover 3 straight at home.

The Warriors destroyed Sacramento by 24 last time out and might do it again. Himmy Butler has brought the Golden State offense to life and they are 10-1 SU with him, winning every game by at least 5 points. The Kings are erratic and not particularly good at anything. They are 2-5 ATS last 7 on road, 8-13 ATS vs top 10 teams and 4-8 ATS within the division. The Warriors have failed to cover 3 in a row but settling in being back home will help their prep and they have won 5 in row, including 3 by double digits.

Blazers likely win this game. Knicks with short bench on long road trip with no Jalen Brunson, They lit it up in first game without him but that tends to regress, quickly. Knicks are just 15-17 ATS on road and 12-11 ATS as road favorite and 2-5 last 7 ATS on road and 2-9 ATS last 11 overall and 11-12 ATS vs West. Blazers are strong at home, covering 9 of 11 and doing so by 47.5, 7, 28.5, 7.5, 23.5, 34, 18.5, 4, 15.5. POR 16-5 ATS vs East and 32-19-1 ATS outside their division. 17-10 ATS as home dog. One days rest at home has suited them just fine. Not sure the Knicks are going to be as emotionally up for this one.

We can talk about the Mavs running out of player and all of their injuries and all of that ... but they keep going over against bad defensive teams and they can't stop anyone without their top three rim protectors. Spurs allowing NBA-worst 125/G over past 10 games. Mavs are 23rd at 120/G allowed. Mavs over 4 of last 6, all over by at least 12 points. Spurs are over in 6 straight, with 5 of those games going over by 10.5 points or more. Those 6 Spurs games have totaled: 261, 261, 23, 240, 278 and 258. No Wemby has crushed Spurs interior defense. Dallas will get to the basket. I expect guys like Klay and Vassell to light it up here.

We are operating as if the Suns defense - especially on the road - is irrevocably busted until proven otherwise. Are we continue to fade it. Beat up Memphis and Dallas, struggling offensive, soared over their team totals vs Suns. Suns have allowed 116 or more on road in 11 straight games, allowing 120+ in 8 of them! They are allowing 128(!!!)/G over last 11 on road. Rockets should be running more like last year but are at least league average in pace over last 10 games and Suns lacks of any rim defenders should be a major problem here. Don't need to stroke 3s to hit. Rockets went for 119 last time they hosted PHX and 118+ in 4 of last 8 at home.

Maybe it's a blip but the Pels have played legit defense at home the last few weeks and are under 4 straight in New Orleans by the ridiculous margins of 28, 25.5, 27.5 and 32.5. Hard to ignore that. Clippers probably without sharpshooter Norman Powell again, and seem to be starting to return to their defense-first identity as well. They are under in 2 of last 3 games and 22-12 to the under after a victory. Not expecting any run and gun here and running up the score hasn't been a thing for the Clippers, who struggle to cover on road. These teams are 19th and 29th in pace over the last 10 games. That suits Clippers better and should carry the day.

The Nuggets defense remains a problem as we have chronicled and while the Thunder might not cover 2 straight against them they should push for 130 yet again. Denver is allowing 120/G over the last 11 on the road and this is a team uniquely built to test them defensively. OKC is the second best offensive team in the league pretty much all season and over the last 15 games and they definitely gut up for the bigger games.

Wolves offense continues to make strides after getting key scorers back from injury and finally seeming to adjust to life after KAT. They have scored 123+ in 4 of their last 7 at home and the Spurs are a pathetic defensive team since losing Wemby for the season. They are allowing 119/G on the road over their last 13 contests. Over the last 15 games overall they are 29th in opposing rebound % and rebounds/G, 27th in opponent FG% and 24th in points allowed/G (120.5). Running out of gas/tanking at a time when ANT seems intent on making a statement about MIN's ability to score the ball more like they did a year ago. Vegas hasn't quite caught up yet.

I don't buy the disjointed and beat up Bucks in back to back settings and especially not against the Cavs. MIL just 3-8-1 ATS with no rest and I don't think anything that happens tonite is going to turn this spread away from me. Cavs 21-13-1 ATS with 1 day off and 11-3 ATS with rest advantage and 34-17-1 ATS after a win. Bucks winning more games lately ... but peep who they have been playing. Buck 5-12 ATS vs top 10 NBA teams. Cavs have covered 5 of their last 6 on the road.

Thunder have won 20 of their last 22 at home and all of them by at least 8 points. They are the best team in the NBA for me right now and significantly better and more balanced than Denver. Nuggets have some serious defensive issues and shooting is very streaky. Nuggs have covered just 3 of their last 10 on road and 1 of last 5 overall. Denver allowing 119/G on the road over their last 10 away from home and the Thunder will be able to score on them from paint and behind the arc. OKC has covered 4 of its last 5. OKC 2nd O rating and 5th D rating in NBA over last 15 games. SGA putting ! on his MVP resume