I think this spread is at least a couple of points too high and that oddsmakers are hugely overexaggerating what happened Saturday: Miami sleepwalked through an ugly win over awful Louisville and UNC crushed Clemson. The Tar Heels made 15 three-pointers in their win, but that's a fluke as UNC is among the worst three-point shooting teams in the country and totaled 16 three-point makes in its previous three games. If the Heels start finding their stroke from deep, then yeah they will be awesome. UNC is 0-4 ATS in its past four after a cover. During Jim Larranaga's tenure, Miami is one four teams with seven-plus wins over the Tar Heels.

The switch may have been flipped in Chapel Hill, and I expect we will see more of the quality UNC displayed in its trouncing of Clemson when Miami shows up to the Dean Dome on Monday night. Hubert Davis had players on the team practicing in weighted vests following the three-game losing streak to symbolize the pressure last year's national runner-up has been playing with, encouraging the Tar Heels to play a more free and loose brand of basketball. Miami is running into a motivated team playing with urgency to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament, and the setting is a building where the Hurricanes haven't won since 2018.