Stanford 2023 college football futures odds: Rebuilding Cardinal have lowest win total in nation under new coach Troy Taylor

It's difficult for FBS schools with incredibly high academic admissions requirements to maintain a winning football program year after year. We're talking the likes of Stanford, Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt to name four in power conferences. Stanford was among the nation's top programs not all that long ago but has fallen on hard times. The team's 2023 over/under win total of 3 is the lowest of any team in the nation under first-year coach Troy Taylor, per Caesers Sportsbook.

The Cardinal finished 3-9 for a second straight season in 2022 under highly respected coach David Shaw, who had replaced Jim Harbaugh on the Farm. From 2010, Harbaugh's last season there, through 2018, Stanford was a national player. But it hasn't finished with more than four wins in a season since, going a combined 14-28. It went 3-16 in Pac-12 play over the past two seasons and lost to bitter rival Cal in both years. Shaw stepped down from his alma mater after the team's regular-season finale last year. He was winningest head coach in Stanford history with a 96-54 career record.

The downfall has coincided with the loosening of transfer rules across college football. Stanford has not been able to add to its roster through transfers as easily as most of its competition, both in the Pac-12 and nationally, because of its admission requirements. The program also had fallen behind in terms of snagging big-money NIL deals for its players – which Shaw flat-out referenced.

The new coach is Taylor, an offensive-minded leader who spent the last four seasons as head coach at Sacramento State, leading the Hornets to the FCS playoffs three times. At his initial press conference at Stanford, Taylor said he had been given assurances that program would will loosen its restrictions on transfers. Note that Stanford originally hired Harbaugh from FCS school San Diego.

"There's players out there that fit that bill," Taylor said. "You just got to reach out a little bit further and travel a little bit more miles and all those things. I've been assured that they're open to bringing players in through the transfer portal as long as they fit the identity of Stanford."

Nailing down a team's returning starters these days is a bit of a crapshoot and even a bit misleading because of the transfer portal, but Stanford is projected to return a Pac-12-low six starters from last year's incredibly young team. Tanner McKee was the primary starting quarterback for the past two seasons but was a sixth-round pick by the Eagles.

Last year's backup QB, Ari Patu, is likely to win the job. Patu has attempted a total of 25 passes in his two seasons (he can run) and played prep ball at Folsom High in California. Interestingly, Taylor was a coach there from 2002-04 and again from 2012-15.

The Cardinal do have a promising running back in EJ Smith, son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith, and one of the country's better tight ends in Benjamin Yurosek. There's nowhere to go but up for a defense that allowed 434 yards and 32 points per game. A few key players on that side transferred out.

How bad are things? Stanford is 10-point underdog for its season opener at Hawaii on Sept. 1 – a CBS Sports Network game. Hawaii was at least as bad as the Cardinal last year at 3-10 and lost by 53 at home to Vanderbilt, yet is giving that many points to a Power 5 school.

Taylor's club might be favored just once this year: At home against his former Sacramento State program on Sept. 16. The only other realistic wins on the schedule are Sept. 23 vs. Arizona and Nov. 18 vs. Cal. ESPN's SP+ projects Stanford to finish with 2.8 wins.

There are a few other schools at Caesars with O/U 3 win totals, but none of them are in the Power 5. If you want to bet the Under for Stanford, both FanDuel and BetMGM have the Cardinal at 3.5 wins, but the Under is heavily juiced. 

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