College football Week 1 odds: Memphis vs. Mississippi State has taken most betting action, seen biggest spread movement

We are less than a month away from the start of the 2022 college football season, which begins with a handful of games in Week 0 on Saturday, Aug. 27, and then kicks off in full in Week 1 on Thursday, Sept. 1. The game in those two weeks at Caesars Sportsbook that has taken the most action thus far is also the one that has seen easily the biggest spread move: Memphis at Mississippi State on Sept. 3.

Last season, Memphis hosted Mississippi State at the Liberty Bowl and the Tigers won 31-29 as 3-point underdogs – it's not every day an AAC school beats an SEC one. Memphis overcame a 17-7 halftime deficit behind quarterback Seth Henigan, who completed 16 of 28 passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Calvin Austin III had nine receptions for 105 yards and two TDs, and returned a punt 94 yards for a score in the fourth quarter, the longest return for a Tiger since 1975.

Henigan is back this year for Coach Ryan Silverfield, while Austin was a fourth-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2022 NFL draft. Memphis is a +900 fourth favorite to win the AAC title this season and has an Over/Under win total of 7.5 after finishing last year at 6-6 (bowl game canceled).

Under Coach Mike Leach, Mississippi State was 7-6 in 202. Quarterback Will Rogers threw for 4,739 yards (third-most in SEC history) and 36 touchdowns. Rogers is one of the top returning quarterbacks in the SEC and is +8000 to win the Heisman Trophy. Rogers broke 25 school records during his sophomore season, including Dak Prescott's marks for single-season total offense, passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Mississippi State has a win total of 6.5 for this year. Caesars Sportsbook oddsmakers opened the Bulldogs as 8-point favorites, but they rose as high as 17 before setting for now at -16.5. Mississippi State has taken 97 percent of the spread money on this game and 79 percent of the tickets.

"This was the line we definitely opened up too low," said Joseph Feazel, Lead College Football Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. "We were the first ones to have this opener, and it was immediately bet up to 11. Then it remained stale at 11 until the rest of the market opened it up, and then it went up to 14. Now we're up to 16.5. There's just a lot of faith in this Mississippi State program, especially with how much respect the SEC gets. I think it's moved a little bit too far from where it should be, I think it should be closer to 14. But once some bettors start seeing a line steaming up, they tag on that and that piling on is why we're at 16.5."

Mississippi State is 9-1 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in its past 10 as at least a 16-point favorite. The one outright loss was home to Arkansas in 2020. 

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