CFB: QB changes cause major spread shift for UCLA vs. Stanford

It's generally common knowledge that top-flight NFL quarterbacks are worth a touchdown or more to the spread. But apparently Stanford's backups are quickly approaching such rarefied air.

In pro football, quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees can be worth up to 10 points to the spread per game, depending on the circumstances. For instance, the Saints have played well in the absence of the injured Brees, but were still 2.5-point underdogs last week at the Jacksonville Jaguars. They likely would have been about 4.5-point favorites with Brees in the lineup, and they are three-point underdogs this weekend at Chicago.

Even though mediocre NFL starters can be worth 3-5 points to the spread (see Sam Darnold), college football is a different story. The spread doesn't move for just about anybody, including the starting signal-caller on 90 percent of FBS programs. The assumption being, if Notre Dame's quarterback goes down, there's likely a five-star recruit waiting in the wings who is just as good. This often proves to be the case.

Still, the best of the best in the college game will move the number. But it really needs to be the likes of Heisman contenders such as Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa or Clemson's Trevor Lawrence to get the attention of oddsmakers. That is, until this week, when Stanford second-stringer Davis Mills joined their elite company.

Stanford opened as a 9.5-favorite against reeling UCLA on Monday. The number moved to -7 in most shops when news surfaced that Bruins starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson would play, while Stanford starter KJ Costello remained sidelined and Mills was listed as questionable.

On Wednesday night, Mills was ruled out, making sophomore third-stringer Jack West the starter for Thursday's game. The spread at William Hill US dropped from -7 to -4 within a half hour, before later dipping down to a low point of -3.5. It remained there as of Thursday afternoon for the 9 p.m. ET kickoff. 

Mills looked solid in leading the Cardinal to two straight victories, and was especially impressive in their 23-13 upset of Washington. But Stanford coach David Shaw said West saw extensive reps in training camp and he felt comfortable that the signal-caller could run the whole playbook.

A quarterback would seem even less valuable to the spread for a run-oriented team like Stanford. But the six-point move caused by the absence of Mills stands out as the rare time when a non-starter can influence the spread.