Justin Fields 2021 NFL Draft odds: Jets, Falcons, Lions favored to select Fields; Texans trading Deshaun Watson could change everything

As expected, Ohio State junior quarterback Justin Fields officially declared for the 2021 NFL Draft last week – the draft is set to begin April 29 in Cleveland, but the location certainly could change depending on the coronavirus. Entering the 2020 college football season, Fields was considered almost a lock to be the No. 2 overall pick in 2021, but that may no longer be the case. SportsLine NFL oddsmakers list which team might take him.

Fields was the much better quarterback than Clemson's Trevor Lawrence in Ohio State's 49-28 upset of Lawrence's No. 2 Tigers in the Sugar Bowl semifinal game on New Year's Day. However, there is no debate who is going first overall come April 29 to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Lawrence is the -5000 favorite and he's the biggest reason that Urban Meyer took the Jacksonville head coaching job.

As a two-year starter at Ohio State, Fields was 20-2 while leading the Buckeyes to the College Football Playoff semifinal in 2019 and championship game in 2020.

The New York Jets pick second, and they certainly could take Fields. However, Sam Darnold is still just 23 years old and potentially under team control for two more seasons -- 2021 on the last of his rookie-year deal and 2022 if the Jets pick up his fifth-year option by May 3.

In addition, new head coach Robert Saleh and his hand-picked offensive coordinator, Mike LaFleur, have said they have watched plenty of tape on Darnold and see "untapped potential." In Saleh's introductory press conference last Thursday, he heaped praise on Darnold but stopped short of committing to him.

"There's a lot of things that we have to do moving forward," Saleh said when asked if Darnold would be the starting quarterback in 2021. "We're just getting the staff into the building. There's so many things that we have to do from an evaluation standpoint with regards to the entire roster, not just the quarterback. "To give you that answer right now would not be fair."

If the Jets keep Darnold, they surely aren't taking Fields but instead could take the No. 2 overall prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board, Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell (he opted out of last season). Adding Sewell to last year's No. 11 overall pick, Mekhi Becton, would give Gang Green the best pair of young tackles in the league by far. Or New York could look at someone like LSU receiver J'Marr Chase or Alabama wideout DeVonta Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner.

The wild card with the No. 2 spot is if the Jets perhaps trade that in a package to Houston for Deshaun Watson – which would mean New York wouldn't take Fields but that the Texans could – or if another team trades up with the Jets for that pick because it wants Fields.

The Miami Dolphins at No. 3 almost surely wouldn't take Fields with Tua Tagovailoa in place (although the Fins also have been rumored in trade possibilities for Watson) and they'd probably look at receiver at No. 3 unless Sewell is there.

Fields could be a perfect fit for Atlanta and new head coach Arthur Smith at No. 4 as the Falcons can get out of Matt Ryan's contract fairly easily after next season. Fields could sit and learn for a year like Patrick Mahomes did in Kansas City. The CBS Sports Big Board ranks Fields as the No. 4 overall prospect.

Cincinnati at No. 5 won't be taking a quarterback and neither will Philadelphia at No. 6. Could Fields slip to Detroit at No. 7? The Lions' new GM and coach probably will trade away Matthew Stafford, perhaps to Indianapolis, and start the rebuild. Check back later this week for odds on Stafford's next team as his days in Detroit are apparently over. 

Other potentially quarterback-needy clubs like Carolina (No. 8 overall), Denver (No. 9), New England (No. 15) and Washington (No. 19), to name four, would have to trade way up to get a chance at Fields. Some clubs also could prefer BYU's Zach Wilson over Fields.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will draft Justin Fields (team, not draft slot)?

• Jets Even
• Falcons +300
• Texans +600
• Lions +700
• Panthers +1000
• Patriots +1200
• Broncos +1500
• Washington +1800

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 Super Bowl on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.