Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield 2023 NFL season props, odds: Former top overall pick beats out Kyle Trask as Week 1 starter, will make history vs. Vikings

NFL head coaches who are fighting for their jobs almost always will choose a starting quarterback with experience in the league over a competitor with little or none if forced into a choice. Maybe no head coach enters the 2023 season on a hotter seat than Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles, so it's no surprise that Tuesday he named former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield as the Buccaneers' Week 1 starter vs. the Vikings over Kyle Trask, who has never started in the NFL. The Bucs remain 6.5-point underdogs on the SportsLine consensus line.

Mayfield would become the first quarterback to start for four different teams (Bucs, Browns, Panthers and Rams) in a span of less than two calendar years since QB starts were first tracked in 1950.   

Bowles told everyone who his starter was this past Saturday, essentially, in a 13-6 win at the Jets. Mayfield started the preseason opener and shined, completing 8 of 9 passes for 63 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions against Pittsburgh.

Trask, who by many accounts had closed the gap considerably on the former Heisman Trophy winner in camp, started against New York and played well before being pulled for third-stringer John Wolford. However, Wolford got hurt and Bowles decided to put Trask back in rather than let Mayfield see the field at all. You save your starter in that situation. In addition, Trask had a pick and fumble against the Jets.

"We love everything Kyle has done and he's gotten leaps and bounds better than he has in the spring and he's continuing to get better and we're excited about him," Bowles said. "Baker's our guy right now, experience-wise and understanding the playbook just a little bit better. But Kyle's on the come. We like both guys. We like where we're at. Baker's No. 1; Kyle's No. 2."

Here are Baker Mayfield props active at DraftKings:

• To win NFL MVP: +15000
• To win NFL Comeback Player of the Year: +7500
• To lead NFL in passing yards: +10000
• To lead NFL in passing TDs: +6500
• To lead NFL in interceptions: +4000
• Over/Under 3000.5 passing yards: Both -110
• Over/Under 17.5 TD passes: Both -110
• At least 350 passing yards in three games: +1300
• At least 300 passing yards in three games: +100
• At least 250 passing yards in eight games: +125
• At least 400 passing yards in any game: +400
• At least 4000 passing yards in season: +300

Mayfield has started 69 regular-season games in the NFL and is 31-38 straight up, including 1-5 last year with the Panthers and Rams. He is 15-25 against the spread (37.5%) over his past three seasons, the worst ATS QB record in the NFL during that time. 

For the opener against the Vikings, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Mayfield to complete 27 of 42 passes for 277 yards, 1.32 TDs and 0.62 picks. He thrown for more than 350 yards in two games. Mayfield signed a one-year deal this offseason with the Bucs worth up to $8.5 million with incentives. Tampa Bay will most likely be selecting a QB high in the 2024 draft.

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