The Ravens go for a preseason sweep...

The Vikings will play their first Week 1 home game in three years...

Stanford aims for revenge in Week Zero...

Tyler Phillips enters with a 3.67 ERA that drastically masks underlying vulnerability. His Statcast profile features a 4.81 xERA, with an uninspiring 17.2% strikeout rate and a very high 3.8 BB/9. Phillips generates very few whiffs (92 Stuff+) and ranks in the 4th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.3%). The Red Sox rank among the league leaders against right-handed sinker-slider repertoires with a 116 wRC+, a .338 xwOBA, and an 11.2% barrel rate. Boston's 74.1-mph average bat speed should play well in loanDepot Park's climate-controlled environment. Plus, with a guaranteed full nine innings of at-bats, their lineup will have ample opportunity to capitalize. The Marlins have held opponents under five runs in four consecutive home games, but that streak ends tonight.

Shota Imanaga’s off-speed pitches rank in the 92nd percentile for run value, making him a tough challenge for the Mariners. Seattle has struggled all season against off-speed offerings, ranking 27th in MLB in that area. They also have the third-lowest team slugging percentage at .375 and an 88 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. When Bryce Miller starts, the Mariners are just 4-11, and he’s been going through a rough patch—posting an 8.04 ERA in August and a 7.18 ERA over the last 30 days. With all this in mind, my model sees the Cubs as the stronger value, with a fair price closer to -125. I’m backing the Cubs here as they look to avoid the sweep.

This is a rematch from Sunday, when Trevor Rogers and the Orioles defeated Freddy Peralta and the Rays. This game is part of one of the strongest MLB betting systems (Same pitching matchup in five days, with both starters getting a decision) I have tracked over the past 20+ years. Because the Rays rely heavily on analytics, they usually make the required adjustments. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, and Rays are the top five teams to bet on using this specific system. Both starting pitchers have an expected ERA around 4.00 this season. In his only career start at Camden Yards, Peralta allowed five hits and one ER across six innings, earning the victory. I think this line should be closer to pick em.

The Minnesota Twins snapped a nine-game losing streak against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, ending a skid that started in 2023. Zebby Matthews has a 4.69 expected ERA and a 92 Stuff+ rating, but he rarely pitches deep into games. When Matthews leaves, the Twins turn to a bullpen that has thrown 210 pitches in the last five days and is ranked 25th in ERA. Tyler Mahle, on the other hand, has a stronger record with a 3.92 expected ERA, a 105 Stuff+ rating, and a 102 Location+ index. Atlanta has a clear advantage, with a +14 Outs Above Average compared to Minnesota’s -4. The Twins are just 6-15 in the second game of a series after winning the first.

Taylen Green is an elite rusher with 2,405 rushing yards in 53 college games, making him dangerous late in preseason games when backup offensive lines are on the field. Cleveland’s main quarterback reps go to Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, but Green’s late snaps add explosive potential. Miller Moss, by contrast, is a pocket passer behind Chicago’s backups and sits behind Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum. Most preseason games are decided in the fourth quarter. Cleveland’s quarterback depth and the drive of new coach Todd Monken, who served under John Harbaugh—a coach known for valuing preseason wins, give the Browns a clear advantage. Monken served as the Browns' offensive coordinator in 2019 and now returns for his second stint.

I like the Padres' chances to at least match the Guardians on the scoreboard after 15 outs. Gavin Williams has been solid, but his hard-hit rate and barrel percentage are both near the bottom of the league—just the 3rd and 6th percentiles. On the other side, the Guardians’ projected lineup hasn’t fared well against Michael King, hitting only .175 with a .453 OPS in 40 career at-bats. It all brings to mind old-school hockey, back before 2005, when a tie was still possible and grabbing a half-goal could mean cashing your ticket.

I have always liked backing rookie head coaches in their first preseason home game. While this game is not in Arizona, I prefer the Cardinals' quarterback rotation to what the Panthers will put out. Mike LaFleur’s debut as Arizona’s head coach introduces strong motivation to establish performance standards. Furthermore, Carson Beck offers starting-caliber collegiate accuracy (79% adjusted completion rate) across two to three quarters of action, giving Arizona a decisive advantage over Carolina's heavy reliance on undrafted rookie Haynes King. Carolina has already suffered several injuries, and its game plan is expected to be very vanilla. Underdogs in Canton are 8-2-1 against the spread since 2013 and have won five straight outright.

Christian Scott has elite pitching metrics, recording a 108 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+, compared to Tanner Bibee’s below-average 98 Stuff+ and 99 Pitching+. Scott has a 28.8% strikeout rate and an 18.6% K-BB rate, while Bibee has fallen to an 18.6% strikeout rate and an 11.5% K-BB rate. Cleveland’s current roster has just a .135 expected batting average against Scott’s four-seam/sweeper mix, while Mets hitters have a .259 xBA and .426 expected slugging percentage against Bibee’s primary pitches. Bibee has thrown 100 and 107 pitches in his last two starts—the first time he has done so this season. He gave up seven earned runs after throwing 104 pitches in May. Let's play the Mets first five money line for half a unit.

Houston is batting .289 with an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .502 and an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .361 in 230 plate appearances against Nathan Eovaldi—the third-highest xwOBA of any starting pitcher scheduled to take the mound on Friday. The Rangers' bullpen enters this game severely taxed, having thrown 225 pitches over the past five days. Friday’s matchup will be the Rangers' 8th straight game without a day off. Hunter Brown has electric stuff, holding opponents to a .192 batting average in 47 innings. And his advanced metrics look strong. He has limited the Rangers' hitters to a .216 batting average and a .377 expected slugging percentage over 111 plate appearances. He just needs to limit walks.

Nathan Eovaldi throws his splitter 37% of the time, his curveball 22%, and his split-finger 13% of the time. Yordan Alvarez excels against all three pitch types, posting lofty slugging numbers. Eovaldi has allowed the sixth-most home runs (22) this season. In his career, Alvarez is batting .480 with two doubles and two home runs in 25 at-bats against the veteran pitcher. The slugger went 0-for-4 on Wednesday and had Thursday off. The Rangers' bullpen enters this game severely taxed, having thrown 225 pitches over the past five days. Big night for Yordan and the Astros at Daikin Park. I have a feeling Alvarez goes yard in his first at-bat. Sprinkle that.

Before joining the Phillies organization, Brian Keller spent six years climbing through the New York Yankees’ minor league system. He has put together a strong minor league resume, posting a 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 616 strikeouts over 593 2/3 innings. This year, Keller has continued to impress, pitching to a 2.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and recording 41 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings. Ryan Weathers has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.56 expected ERA. He has already logged a career-high 102 1/3 innings this season. The Phillies have fared well against Weathers in the past, hitting .368 with a 1.426 OPS in 36 career at-bats. Kyle Schwarber is 3-for-6 with a double and two home runs. I like the home dog in this spot.

Chase Burns is reminiscent of what Luis Castillo was nearly 10 years ago, ironically also for the Reds. Burns owns an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 3.16 expected ERA, a 3.40 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP. He demonstrates strong bat-missing ability, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate. His arsenal features a high-90s mph four-seam fastball (113 Stuff+) paired with a low-90s mph slider that holds opposing batters to a .182 expected batting average and produces a 37.4% chase rate. Castillo has pitched better of late, but I’m fading his season-long metrics. He has a 4.93 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and an opponent batting average of .264, which is higher than the league average of .242. First five avoids bullpen variance.