Dustin May is averaging less than a strikeout per inning at home, where he sports a 4.85 ERA. The Padres have seen him once this season, and they also faced him in 2025. San Diego has fanned an average of seven times over the past three games, as the Padres' offense finally has woken up. Look for May to stay Under on strikeouts.
Brewers starter Kyle Harrison has fanned 1.3 batters per inning at home. Sunday, he faces a Phillies lineup that’s been striking out at an alarming rate. With Harrison coming off a rare short outing, I like him to bounce back and dominate. I would also play this Over 7.5 at plus money.
In this series, Karl-Anthony Towns has seen his shot attempts drop from 15 to 12 to 10 to five. He's not forcing anything; he's contributing with rebounding, defense and timely shots. Since the Spurs stopped guarding KAT with Victor Wembanyama, thus enabling Wemby to roam the paint more, KAT hasn't gotten the easy outside looks. He's also liable to get into foul trouble with Wemby driving at him in a must-win spot.
The Diamondbacks have been shut out in two straight games. This is a great spot for their bats to break out. They excel versus lefties, and Reds lefty Nick Lodolo isn't the same this season. He carries a 5.51 ERA and ranks in the bottom 10 percent in a slew of advanced pitching metrics. Look for Arizona to send Cincy to its seventh loss in eight games.
Stephon Castle played just 26 minutes in the Spurs' heartbreaking Game 4 loss. He got in foul trouble and shot 2 of 7 from the field. However, he made all eight of his foul shots and is shooting 85 percent from the free-throw line in this series. With San Antonio's season on the line Saturday, look for the team's second-leading scorer to play 30-plus minutes and score at least 16 points. He's 16-6 to this Over in the playoffs.
The Mariners have won 11 of their last 14 games, and I like them to stay hot despite George Kirby's recent struggles. Kirby dominated in his last start in Baltimore, last August, when he tossed seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. Orioles starter Brandon Young is 4-1 with a 3.47 ERA, and the team has won his last six starts. But advanced metrics show he's been fortunate. Back the visitors.
De'Aaron Fox has shot poorly in two of three games in this series, but he ended Game 3 on a high note, nailing the mid-range jumper that helped seal the Spurs' win. The Knicks are giving him great looks, both in the mid-range and from beyond the arc. With Stephon Castle having a big scoring performance in Game 3, look for Fox to pick up the scoring load in Game 4.
Mikal Bridges was a virtual no-show in Game 3, scoring two points in 29 minutes. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Knicks watched Jalen Brunson dribble too much in the loss, and coaches and players have stressed the need for better ball movement and cutting. Bridges is the Knicks' best cutter. Look for Bridges to be more involved and impactful as he clears this prop total for the 11th time in the past 13 games.
Rookie star Dylan Harper has grabbed six-plus rebounds in six straight games. He finished with nine boards in 32 minutes Monday, the second straight game in which he played 32 minutes. His leaping ability and quickness were on full display. I would also go Over 6.5 at plus money.
Atlanta has won its last five series openers, and I like the Braves' chances to cover this run line at plus-money. The Braves rank second in OPS (.764) versus right-handed pitching. That should spell trouble for 33-year-old White Sox bulk reliever Erick Fedde. He has a bottom-3 percent strikeout rate and has served up 10 homers in his last seven starts. Current Braves own an .835 OPS against him. Fedde has made 12 appearances (11 starts) against the Braves in his career, going 0-6 with a 9.59 ERA.
Grayson Rodriguez missed nearly two years with injuries before returning in mid-May. Only one of his four starts has gone well. He's giving up a 50 percent hard-hit rate with an expected slugging percentage of .567. Houston's Spencer Arrighetti struggled last time out vs. the Pirates, but before that he had gone six straight starts allowing one or zero runs. Look for Houston, coming off a shutout loss Sunday, to lead after five.
Jalen Brunson has failed to clear this prop total in six straight games. But the volume continues to be there against the Spurs, as he hoisted nine 3-point attempts in Game 1 and eight more in Game 2. In three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson averaged eight 3-point attempts. Brunson shoots better from beyond the arc at MSG and I like the nice plus-money on him to make three treys in Game 3.
Dylan Harper has arguably been the best of the Spurs' top three guards in this series. His minutes went from 28 in Game 1 to 32 on Friday; he finished a team-best plus-12 in the 105-104 loss. Stephon Castle tweaked his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and shot 5 of 14, though he continued to play excellent defense on Jalen Brunson. The Spurs can't afford to play all three guards at once given the Knicks' size on the wings, and so far the best pairing has been Harper and De'Aaron Fox. Look for Harper, who grew up in New Jersey as a diehard Knicks fan, to play 30-plus minutes and clear this combo line for the fifth straight time.
The host Rangers have a starting pitching edge in Sunday's rubber game, with Jacob deGrom facing Cleveland's Joey Cantillo. Texas' veteran ace has fanned 14 while allowing two runs over his past two starts, covering 11 innings; Cantillo has surrendered eight runs over his past two starts, covering six innings. Cantillo's big issue is control: 14 walks in his last 16.2 innings. Look for Texas to lead after five.
Jalen Brunson went 2 of 9 from beyond the arc in Game 1, including a couple misses that were halfway down. The volume should continue to be there due to Victor Wembanyama's presence inside. Brunson did not clear this prop total in any of the past five games, but he did it three out of four games vs. the 76ers. In the three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson hoisted 24 3-point tries, making 10. This is a matchup in which Brunson is more willing to let it fly.