Panthers vs. Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final Game 5 odds, trends, props: Bettors expecting Vegas to win first title, Conn Smythe favorite Jonathan Marchessault to score goal

On Monday night, we saw an NBA Western Conference top seed win its first-ever title (Denver) with a Game 5 home victory over an overmatched No. 8 seed from the East -- and specifically from Florida. Tonight, we could see the NHL Western Conference top seed, the Vegas Golden Knights, win its first-ever title with a Game 5 home victory over an apparently overmatched No. 8 seed from the East in the Florida Panthers. Vegas is taking heavy action to finish the series at BetMGM, and the three-most wagered player props are all on Knights forward and ex-Panther Jonathan Marchessault. Click here for model picks.

Vegas opened at -145 for Game 5 back in Sin City but is now -175 and taking 65% of the bets and 79% of the money. On the total of 6 goals, 51% of the action and 57% of the handle is on the Under.

By far the big question entering Game 5 is the status Florida's best player, forward Matthew Tkachuk. He was limited to 16 minutes and 40 seconds of ice time in the Panthers' Game 4 loss with an upper-body injury suffered in Game 3. Tkachuk was clearly laboring, and he's officially questionable. If the Panthers' season weren't on the line, he'd surely not play. He leads the Panthers in postseason goals (11) and points (24) and has four game-winning goals -- three in overtime. Tkachuk has six points in these playoffs when facing elimination. DraftKings isn't listing him on any props, but most sportsbooks are. 

Florida rallied from a 3-1 hole in Round 1 against record-setting Boston, but just one team has rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the Stanley Cup Final to win it. The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs came back from a 3-0 hole to defeat the Detroit Red Wings for the Cup. A total of 20 of the 37 teams that took a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final closed out the series in Game 5. Eight of the 10 teams to win Game 5 on the road when facing a 3-1 series deficit in the Final did so by one goal. Four of those 10 then won Game 6 to force a Game 7.

Meanwhile, Vegas is one of seven active franchises to never win the Cup, along with Buffalo, Florida, Ottawa, San Jose, Vancouver and Nashville. The Golden Knights can become the 23rd club to win the Stanley Cup since 1927 when the trophy first was competed for only by NHL teams and the 21st active franchise to win it.

Tuesday is nine days shy of the seven-year anniversary of the NHL officially granting an expansion franchise to Las Vegas. It would become the seventh franchise in NHL history to require six or fewer seasons to win their first Stanley Cup. Vegas could become the 12th team in NHL history to win its first-ever potential Cup-clinching game and just the fourth to do so in its own building.  

Should Florida pull the upset and force Game 6 back in Florida on Friday, it would mark the 48th win by a road team in these playoffs, a record. The 47 road wins have equaled 2012 for the most ever in one postseason. Game 4 was the first time this Final that the road team won. Since May 10, home teams are 14-9 (.609) this postseason.

Marchessault as the game's first goal scorer (+850); as an anytime goal scorer (+105); and Over 0.5 points (-165) are the three most-wagered player props tonight. He's tied with Tkachuk and the Stars' Roope Hintz for the most points in these playoffs with 24 and in goals with Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl with 13. Marchessault had a four-game goals streak end in Game 4, but did have an assist and has at least one point in nine straight games. 

He's the -550 heavy favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP despite having just two points (both assists) in Round 1. Marchessault started breaking out with two goals in Game 3 of the second round vs. Edmonton. He was left unprotected in the 2017 expansion draft in a gigantic mistake by Florida (although the rules on which players teams could protect were fairly strict then), and Vegas gladly snapped him up. 

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