Washington Football Team NFL odds: Taylor Heinicke signing likely means end for Alex Smith; Heinicke not likely to be 2021 starting quarterback

Former undrafted free agent Taylor Heinicke started the final game of the Washington Football Team's 2020 NFL season. Heinicke was set to become a restricted free agent this offseason, but the WFT took care of that Wednesday by signing the former Old Dominion star to a two-year deal worth up to $8.75 million. What are the chances that Heinicke opens the 2021 season as the starter under center for Washington? SportsLine NFL oddsmakers consider it a longer shot.

Heinicke was taking math classes at Old Dominion when Washington signed him to its practice squad Dec. 8 because of on- and off-field questions about Dwayne Haskins and a previous season-ending injury to Kyle Allen. Heinicke made his first appearance for Washington in relief of an ineffective Haskins in Week 16 against Carolina and was very solid, completing 12-for-19 for 137 yards and a TD.

The next day, Haskins was released. With starter Alex Smith too banged up for the wild card game against Tampa Bay, Heinicke got the start against the eventual Super Bowl champions and frankly played better than any other QB did against that terrific Bucs defense in the postseason. He was 26-for-44 for 306 yards with a TD and a pick while rushing for 46 yards and a memorable 8-yard TD run late in the third quarter that brought Washington to within 18-16 – it would lose 31-23.

Per Pro Football Focus, Heinicke's QB grade of 92.0 was the best against the Bucs in the playoffs, with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers at 89.2 in the NFC title game, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes at 65.8 in the Super Bowl and New Orleans' Drew Brees at 48.4 in the divisional round.

Heinicke played six games with Carolina in 2018 when current Washington coach Ron Rivera was the coach there (for some of them as Rivera was fired during the season), starting one. In that Week 16 start vs. Atlanta, Heinicke completed 33-of-53 passes for 274 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions while rushing three times for 33 yards in a 24-10 loss. He suffered an elbow injury that landed him on injured reserve.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old already has had some injury problems in his short career; he also injured a shoulder vs. Tampa Bay but didn't come out. Heinicke (6-foot-1, 215 pounds) definitely brings a running factor to the position. After the season, Rivera, who basically runs the show in Washington, said the team's search for a new quarterback would not be limited to just a starter but also finding the right backup for the long haul.

Allen is an exclusive-rights free agent and could also be re-signed. Smith won the 2020 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award but at age 37 (in May) has hinted at retirement. While it was amazing Smith even made it back from his gruesome broken leg to play in the league again, he was rather shaky overall with just six TDs and eight picks in eight games this past season and a rating of 78.5 that ranked 35th in the league.

Smith technically is under contract for two more seasons and has a team-high $24.4 million against the cap hit in 2021. However, Smith has no guaranteed money left on the deal and his dead cap money hit is a much more reasonable $10.8 million if released or he retires. The WFT could spread that $10.8 million over the next few seasons or convince Smith to negotiate a much lower contract for next season ahead of possible retirement. The Saints and Drew Brees recently agreed to reduce his 2021 salary from $25 million to the veterans' minimum of $1.075 million.

The Heinicke signing essentially assures Smith is a goner, but it definitely doesn't mean Washington is done at the position even if Allen re-signs – and Rivera likes him. While both those guys may be given a shot to win the starting job in camp, Washington did chase Matthew Stafford but lost out to him on the Rams.

Peter Haley of NBC Sports Washington wrote today that: "Rivera would surely prefer to enter Week 1 of the 2021 season with Heinicke and Allen, should he re-sign, behind someone with a more consistent track record of production as a pro."

Washington probably doesn't have enough to land Deshaun Watson even if he's made available. Would Philadelphia trade Carson Wentz inside the division? Is Sam Darnold that much of an upgrade on Heinicke/Allen? Perhaps trading for the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo? Could Rivera bring back yet another former Panther in free-agent Cam Newton? Free agency officially opens on March 17.

Needless to say, what Washington still may do at the position would affect the odds below. If the team simply re-signs Allen and drafts a QB at No. 19 overall, Heinicke's chances of starting Week 1 would get much better. The SportsLine Projection Model currently forecasts the WTF to win 6.6 games next season with a 40.7 percent chance of returning to the playoffs. William Hill Sportsbook lists Washington at +6000 to win Super Bowl 56. 

Via SportsLine NFL oddsmakers: Will Taylor Heinicke start Week 1 of the 2021 season for Washington?

• No -500
• Yes +400

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up more than $8,300 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 8 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 79-46 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.