Atlanta Falcons' 2020 breakout player candidate: Receiver Calvin Ridley

We continue our betting look from the CBS Sports division-by-division series of one homegrown player still on a rookie contract who could be key for each team with third-year Atlanta Falcons wideout Calvin Ridley. William Hill sportsbook has not released individual NFL player statistical Over-Under totals yet, but Ridley figures to be set around 950 yards receiving and approximately +2500 to lead the NFL in receiving yards.

Ridley, the No. 26 overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Alabama, was excellent as a rookie with 64 catches for 821 yards and 10 touchdowns. He may have topped all those numbers last year had Ridley not missed three games (suffered abdominal injury in Week 14).

The 6-foot-1, 190-pounder had 63 catches for 866 yards and seven scores. Ridley's 17 touchdown catches were one shy of tying Julio Jones' franchise record for receiving TDs in the first two seasons of a career and third most over that span by any receiver in the league.

Of course, Ridley will never be Matt Ryan's top target as that's the annual Pro Bowler Jones, arguably the NFL's top wideout. Jones has seen a league-high 932 targets since 2014.

Last year, Ridley ranked second among all NFL receivers in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average at 30.6 percent, according to Football Outsiders. Only Bucs Pro Bowler Chris Godwin was ranked better at 32.8 percent. Those percentages represent value per play over an average receiver in the same game situations.

CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan notes that there could be more touches available for Ridley because tight end Austin Hooper was targeted 97 times last year but left for Cleveland in free agency. However, the Falcons traded for Baltimore tight end Hayden Hurst, who is about as good as Hooper. Then again, the Falcons had Mohamed Sanu stealing targets last season as well but he was traded in late October to New England.

Ridley and Ryan have been working out and the QB had this to say recent: "He's a guy I think could explode going into a year like this. I think his grasp of the offense and his mastery of our system is so much further along than it was last year." Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter also has said he expects Ridley to take a jump in Year 3.

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