Amon-Ra St. Brown 2023 NFL season props, odds: Lions receiver taking most action to lead league in receptions, set at 6.5 catches vs. Chiefs in Kickoff Game

The Detroit Lions were one of the breakout teams of the 2022 NFL season and Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of the standout receivers in the league, finishing with career highs of 146 targets, 106 catches, 1,161 yards and six touchdowns. No player is taking more action at BetMGM to lead the NFL in catches this year than St. Brown with the Lions opening the season Thursday in Kansas City. He's set at over/under 6.5 catches vs. the Chiefs.

Brown's 106 catches ranked seventh in the NFL, and he missed one game. All the receivers ahead of him played all 17 regular-season games, with Minnesota's Justin Jefferson topping the league with 128 catches en route to Offensive Player of the Year honors. Jefferson is +650 to repeat.

St. Brown, a fourth-round steal in the 2021 draft out of USC, opened +2000 at BetMGM to win the receptions title but is down to +1100 and has taken 33% of the money on that prop, the most in the NFL. St. Brown had been dealing with a bit of an ankle injury in the preseason, but isn't listed on the injury report for the Kickoff Game against Kansas City. He is also set at O/U 74.5 receiving yards and 22.5 yards for a longest reception. To score an anytime TD, St. Brown is a +115 third favorite. 

He is not among the five most-wagered props for tonight as of this writing per BetMGM, but I expect him to be by kickoff. The top two are on Travis Kelce to score the game's first TD (+650) and an anytime TD (-125). Kelce is a true game-time decision with his knee injury suffered Tuesday. Teams generally release their inactive list around 6:30 p.m. ET for a primetime game. Noah Gray should start if Kelce can't go. (Most Chiefs beat writers think he sits out of caution.)

Rounding out the Top 5 at the book: Chiefs to win by 7-12 points (+425);  Jahmyr Gibbs over 31.5 receiving yards (-115); and  Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+130).

Here are Amon-Ra St. Brown's season props:

• To win NFL Offensive Player of the Year: +3500
• To lead NFL in receiving yards: +3000
• To lead NFL in receiving TDs: +4500
• To lead NFL in receptions: +1100
• Over/Under 999.5 receiving yards: Over -125 favorite
• Over/Under 5.5 receiving TDs: Over -135 favorite
• Over/Under 95.5 receptions: Both -110

At 6-foot, St. Brown isn't a huge red-zone target, but he wasn't that far from double-digit TDs in 2022. He was tackled at the 1-yard line three separate times last season and inside the 5 several other times. That essentially set up running back Jamaal Williams to lead the league by a mile in rushing TDs with 17, but he's now in New Orleans.

Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson holds the franchise and NFL records with 1,964 yards receiving in 2012. Herman Moore's 123 catches in 1995 are the team record, while Johnson's 16 TDs in 2011 are the most in franchise history.

Detroit is a bit thin at wideout for the first six games of the season with 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams serving a gambling suspension, so that could mean perhaps a few more targets for St. Brown as Jared Goff's clear safety blanket. Also consider the Lions are breaking in two skill position rookies in running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta.

For Thursday night, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts St. Brown for 5.6 catches, 59 yards and 0.33 TDs.

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