Advanced model updates Raiders' projected win total

Provided that construction is completed on schedule and the 2020 NFL season goes off as planned, the Las Vegas Raiders will be welcomed into existence in 2020 as they move into Allegiant Stadium. In Jon Gruden's second year back at the helm in 2019, the Raiders managed to exceed expectations by jumping out to a 6-4 start before winning just one of their last six games.

However, seeing an opportunity to capitalize on building momentum, the Raiders continued to aggressively overhaul their roster this offseason, committing over $45 million in 2020 salary cap space to their top seven signings during NFL free agency. And of those seven signings, only Jason Witten (38) is older than 29 years old, so the franchise managed to get younger in the process of getting more talented.

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 At the 2020 NFL Draft, Gruden paid early homage to Al Davis by drafting the fastest wide receiver available. Henry Ruggs III was viewed by most as a rawer prospect than Alabama teammate Jerry Jeudy, but Ruggs' ability to stretch the field with 4.27-second speed in the 40-yard-dash made him the first wide receiver taken in one of the deepest wideout classes in recent memory. The Raiders also added further playmaking ability in the third round by taking Kentucky quarterback/wide receiver Lynn Bowden and South Carolina wide receiver Bryan Edwards with back-to-back picks.

On the other side of the ball, Gruden continued to march to the beat of his own drum by taking Ohio State cornerback Damon Arnette with the No. 19 overall pick they acquired as part of the Khalil Mack trade. Arnette projects as a likely starter, but most viewed him as a fringe first-rounder at best and thought there were better cornerbacks available at the stage of the draft. He also decided to go with productivity and pedigree over athletic potential by drafting Clemson linebacker Tanner Muse in the third round.

Ultimately, just how well Gruden did by going completely against the grain in the last two NFL drafts will likely define his second stint as the head coach of the Raiders. But what will the heavy free agency spending and an unusual approach to the draft lead to in the 2020 NFL season?

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Raiders win an average of 6.2 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, up from 6.1 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Las Vegas wins the division 9.2 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 15.9 percent of the time. The Raiders are also currently 40-1 to win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 18th-best odds in the NFL.