Advanced model updates Dolphins' projected win total

It's been three seasons now since the Miami Dolphins last made the NFL playoffs, and in that span there haven't been many reasons for encouragement. Miami hasn't finished better than 25th in the NFL in either scoring offense or scoring defense during those three seasons, yet they enter the 2020 season feeling relatively optimistic in Brian Flores' second season at the helm.

The Dolphins spent big money in free agency, spending $82.5 million over five years to add cornerback Byron Jones, $51 million over four years on linebacker Kyle Van Noy and $30 million over three years on both defensive end Shaq Lawson and guard Ereck Flowers. Miami also spent additionally adding defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, running back Jordan Howard, safety Clayton Fejedelem, center Ted Karras and linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, all of whom figure to factor in significantly to the two-deep.

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Then at the 2020 NFL Draft, the Dolphins took another crack at securing their quarterback of the future by selecting Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the No. 5 overall pick. Tagovailoa is as accurate of a passer as we've seen in recent years and he put up unbelievably efficient numbers in a pro-style offense and probably would have been in the mix with Joe Burrow to go No. 1 if not for his injury history. And with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the roster, the Dolphins have time to bring Tagovailoa along.

With their other two first-round picks, the Dolphins added USC offensive tackle Austin Jackson and Auburn cornerback Noah Igbinoghene. With two second-round picks, Miami went back to offensive line with Louisiana-Lafayette's Robert Hunt and then went back to Alabama for defensive lineman Raekwon Davis. With their remaining six picks, Miami managed to add depth on both sides of the ball and got in on the AFC East specialist trend by drafting LSU long snapper Blake Ferguson in the sixth round.

Ultimately, this is a greatly improved roster and if an open quarterback competition yields results (be it from Fitzpatrick or Tagovailoa), this could be a franchise poised to make a leap. However, it's still a young roster with a lot of variables in play, so there are no guarantees that they're ready to get into the mix in the AFC East.

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Dolphins win an average of 5.6 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 5.8 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Miami wins the division 4.7 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 9.2 percent of the time. The Dolphins are also currently 100-1 to win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for fifth-worst odds in the NFL.