Advanced model updates Chiefs' projected win total

The Kansas City Chiefs showed a flair for the dramatic on their way to winning Super Bowl 54, erasing double-digit deficits in all three of their postseason games on the way to the title. Now, with Patrick Mahomes installed as the face of the franchise and most of the roster's key pieces in their mid-to-late 20s, the Chiefs looked poised to compete regularly for championships.

However, there's no room for complacency in the NFL and the organization will have a tricky few seasons to navigate to keep their corps intact. The organization has two years of control over Mahomes and can also use the franchise tag for a season or two if needed, but they'd likely prefer to get a deal done sooner rather than later to give themselves a clearer picture of their salary cap situation moving forward after playing it extremely conservative in NFL free agency.

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Without much money to spend, the club's two biggest free agency signings were right tackle Mike Remmers and running back DeAndre Washington and both are strictly depth signings. Instead, the Chiefs used the 2020 NFL Draft to address what few areas of need they had and build upon what they already have. And in the first round, the Chiefs added to an already-dynamic offense by selecting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the No. 32 overall pick.

Kansas City also added TCU offensive tackle Lucas Niang in the third round to add some depth with starting upside on the offensive line, but spent their other four picks bulking up defensively. Mississippi State linebacker Willie Gay will have an opportunity to compete for a meaningful role, as will Louisiana Tech defensive back L'Jarius Sneed after Kendal Fuller left in free agency.

Ultimately, this is still a Kansas City defense that is built to disrupt with Frank Clark, Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu and the Chiefs offense will be in an even better position to attack down the field with Edwards-Helaire's impressive receiving abilities drawing plenty of attention underneath. And that's a formula that has served Andy Reid well the last couple seasons so they'll head into the 2020 NFL season with incredible confidence and for good reason.

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Chiefs win an average of 11.6 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 11.9 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Kansas City wins the division 83.2 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 97.8 percent of the time. The Chiefs are also currently 4-1 to win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which are the best odds in the NFL.