Advanced model updates Chargers' projected win total

After 14 years with Philip Rivers as the starting quarterback, the Los Angeles Chargers made the conscious decision to go in another direction with Rivers' contract expiring after a 5-11 season. Now they'll enter the 2020 NFL season with Tyrod Taylor expected to start at quarterback and head coach Anthony Lynn will be hoping for a smooth transition as the franchise is thinking long-term as it moves into a new building.

With Rivers gone and Melvin Gordon leaving for the Broncos after a tumultuous season, the Chargers extended Austin Ekeler to give themselves some certainty at running back moving forward and then beefed up the offensive line by trading for Panthers guard Trai Turner and signing former Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga in free agency. Defensively, the organization added a pair of impact veterans by inking deals with former Broncos cornerback Chris Harris and former Vikings defensive tackle Linval Joseph.

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At the 2020 NFL Draft, the Chargers made their plans to use Taylor as a bridge clear by selecting Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert with the No. 6 overall pick. Herbert is an elite athlete that can make every throw, but he'll definitely need some mechanical tweaks after struggling with ball placement in the intermediate passing game. The Chargers also added some playmaking ability by drafting UCLA running back Joshua Kelley, Virginia wide receiver Joe Reed and Ohio State wide receiver K.J. Hill.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers jumped on the opportunity to move back into the first round to take Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray with the No. 23 overall pick. Murray is a true sideline-to-sideline linebacker who should benefit enormously from all the attention Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Joseph will require in front of him. Los Angeles also added a productive safety to their rotation by landing Notre Dame safety Alohi Gilman in the sixth round.

With a potentially elite defensive unit in place and quality skill players like Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, just how well the Chargers fare in 2020 seems likely to come down to quarterback play. And with Herbert looking like a project and the coronavirus pandemic keeping him from getting meaningful reps with his teammates, Taylor could be the quarterback who has the largest impact (good or bad) in the league this season.

The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Chargers win an average of 8.1 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 8.0 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Los Angeles wins the division 9.1 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 45.7 percent of the time. The Chargers are also currently 25-1 to win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 12th-best odds in the NFL.