Advanced model predicts exact impact of Tom Brady on Buccaneers

Over the course of 20 seasons with the New England Patriots, Tom Brady created a legacy as the most accomplished player in league history. However, with New England expressing interest in moving in a new direction, Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the offseason and he's suddenly surrounded with a dizzying array of weapons.

But just how good can Tom Brady be for the Buccaneers? He's coming off a down year statistically in New England and he's going to be playing in a much more aggressive system at a stage in his career where it finally seems as if he might not be able to defy time much longer. Will he still be serviceable and exactly how much does he give them as compared to a replacement level player?

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every game of the season 10,000 times and we've used it to isolate the potential value of several big additions in the 2020 NFL offseason. The model assumes a best-case scenario where each player is healthy and utilized in a critical role.

For Brady in Tampa Bay, he personally should receive a major boost from playing with elite playmakers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. That's among the most talented supporting casts Brady's ever had and Brady should certainly be an improvement at the position after Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions in 2019. 

But will that be enough to take the Buccaneers from a 7-9 team to legitimate contenders in an NFC South where the New Orleans Saints have won 37 games over the last three seasons? Here's what the model says Brady's impact is worth in its 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL schedule.

It's worth noting as you look at these numbers, individual players rarely have an impact of more than one win because of the number of variables in play and the fact that the NFL season is only 16 games as compared to a 162-game MLB season where individual stars can be worth 10 wins or more. But Brady's 0.8 added wins is a huge boost and the impact he has on their likelihood of winning the division and making the NFL playoffs is substantial.

The Buccaneers offense was already No. 3 in the NFL in scoring and total offense in 2019 and the additions of Brady and Gronkowski should give them the potential to score with any team in the league. And even if what Brady adds isn't enough to take them past Drew Brees and the Saints, it might be enough to get them into the postseason where anything can happen.

Tampa Bay will certainly be relying on Brady to remain durable with Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin installed as his current backups. And if Brady can indeed stay healthy and meet expectations, the future Hall of Famer takes the Buccaneers from fringe playoff contender to a team that you can consider betting to make the playoffs in 2020.