Heat vs. Celtics NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 odds, trends: Heavy money on Miami, Jayson Tatum prop to stay under 30 points

The Miami Heat will take the court Wednesday night in Boston as the second-ever No. 8 seed to reach the NBA's conference finals, but they are 8.5-point underdogs at BetMGM against the second-seeded Celtics with no major injury concerns for Game 1. The Heat are taking a heavy lean on the spread and money line, while bettors are a bit mixed on Jayson Tatum's prospects for the Celtics. Click here for expert picks.

Boston opened at -7.5 but is now -8.5 despite taking just 27% of the bets and 34% of the money. Now +290 on the money line, the Heat are getting 79% of the bets and 69% of the money. The Celtics have lost three times at home already this postseason. The total has risen a point from 209.5 to 210.5, with 80% of the bets and 81% of the money on the Over. Miami and Boston enter this series with the exact same defensive rating (111.0 points allowed per 100 possessions).

It's the sixth all-time playoff matchup between the franchises, with Miami winning three of the first five but losing a home Game 7 in the 2022 East Finals to Boston by a score of 100-96. It was Boston's first Game 7 victory on another team's home floor since beating Milwaukee for the 1974 NBA title.

No one expected the Heat back in this position – remember, Miami lost its first play-in tournament game in one-sided fashion at home to Atlanta and was trailing the second winner-take-all game late in the fourth quarter against Chicago before rallying to win. Then the Heat stunned the Bucks and knocked off the Knicks, thanks largely to Jimmy Butler.

Boston won a Game 7 at home against Philadelphia on Sunday to advance behind 51 points from Tatum, an NBA record for a Game 7. He also became the first player with at least 50 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in a series-clinching win.

Two of the three most-wagered player props tonight are on Tatum: Under 29.5 points at -115 and Over 9.5 rebounds at -120. He's averaging 28.2 points and 10.6 boards in these playoffs and averaged 30.8 points and 10.5 rebounds in four regular-season meetings vs. the Heat.

Other popular player props: Al Horford to score the game's first field goal at +1200, Derrick White Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists at -110, and Butler Over 27.5 points (-120).

White played heavy minutes in Round 1 vs. the Hawks and the first five games vs. Philly, but totaled just 31 minutes in the final two games when the Celtics moved big man Robert Williams into the starting lineup in favor of White – and apparently will keep Williams there for Game 1.

Boston is -550 on the series line and Miami is +400, with 79% of the bets on the Heat but 52% of the money on the Celtics.

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