Bradley Beal traded to Suns odds fallout: Phoenix still not 2024 NBA title favorite but improves by 2 wins with Beal replacing Chris Paul, per proven model

The new NBA collective bargaining agreement signed between the NBA Players' Association and owners (effective July 1) was supposed to signal the end of the super-team era, with the luxury tax cost of paying three stars becoming incredibly daunting. New Phoenix Suns owner Mat Ishbia apparently doesn't care about your luxury taxes, as the Suns are set to land three-time All-Star guard Bradley Beal in trade from the Washington Wizards for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet and draft picks. The sportsbooks have responded.

Caesars Sportsbook improved Phoenix's 2024 NBA title odds from +900 to +575 – still behind Denver (+450) and Boston (+550) – while BetMGM shifted the Suns from +700 to +650.

Paul is on the short list of most accomplished NBA players to never win a title. Any realistic shot he had at a ring this year ended when he was hurt in Game 2 of the conference semifinals against Denver and didn't make it back. Despite the best efforts of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, the Suns lost to the eventual champion Nuggets in six games. There were reports last week the Suns were simply releasing Paul, but all the better to find a trade for him. 

Several Phoenix second-round picks and a picks swap also are included in the deal for Beal. The deal isn't finalized yet but should be within a few days. Paul is a future Hall of Famer, but has a history of breaking down and is 38, while Beal will be 30 later this month.

It's an upgraded threesome for Phoenix as Beal, Durant and Booker all rank among the NBA's top 20 active players in career points per game out of 230 players with at least 250 games played. The last time the Suns had a trio each average at least 20 points per game in the same season was in 1988-89, when Tom Chambers, Kevin Johnson and Eddie Johnson did so. Beal averaged 23.3 PPG last season, while averaged Durant 29.1 (split with Nets and Suns) and Booker 27.8.

Note that the All-Star trio combined to play in just 150 games last season due to injury and 163 the season before. Beal has not played more than 60 games since 2018. Durant has not played more than 55 games since injuring his Achilles in the 2019 NBA Finals. Booker had been durable until last year.

All three of those players are on max contracts, as is Deandre Ayton. They will combine to make $163 million in 2023-24, enough to already put the Suns into the luxury tax without signing even a fifth player to make a full lineup. They are going to have to fill out their roster with cheap, ring-chasing veterans or young players. Ayton may need to be moved in a trade.

Also don't be surprised if the Suns are now Denver's opponent on Opening Night. Not only would it be a playoff rematch, but the Beal storyline adds appeal.

Phoenix's projected win total improves by 2.1 for the 2023-24 season, per the SportsLine Projection Model. The full NBA schedule will be out in August. 

As for Washington? The full-blown rebuild has begun, and the Wizards didn't get much for Beal because he had a no-trade clause and held all the leverage. Paul surely will be flipped. The model subtracts 4.7 wins from Washington's total.

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