Advanced model updates title chances for Boston Celtics

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic shutting the NBA season down, the Boston Celtics were sitting pretty in the Eastern Conference as the No. 3 seed with a 43-21 record. And with the NBA now targeting a summer return for 22 of its teams, the Celtics will hope to pick up where they left off in pursuit of an NBA-leading 18th championship.

With Kyrie Irving leaving for the Brooklyn Nets during the offseason, the Celtics have been led by the quartet of Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward. All four players are averaging at least 17.5 points per game this season, but perhaps more importantly, Brad Stevens' roster understands its defensive roles well and currently rank second in the NBA in points allowed per game (106.8) and fourth in defensive rating (106.8).

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 The top nine players in Boston's rotation have all been worth at least 1.3 defensive win shares per game with Tatum (3.4 defensive win shares) leading the way as a defensive stopper than can guard multiple positions. And that sense of defensive identity as a team is why the Celtics rank seventh in the NBA in steals (8.3) despite not having anybody average more than 1.6 per game and sixth in blocks (5.6) despite not having anybody average more than 1.3 per game.

Of course, after three months off (likely closer to four once the season actually restarts), the question will be can they expect to have the same kind of continuity when they return? The Celtics came out of the gates hot with a 10-1 record to start the season and had actually lost four of their last six games heading into this unexpected break.

But what exactly are Boston's chances of winning the Eastern Conference when the NBA returns and how likely are they to get through one of the powerhouses from the Western Conference if they can reach the finals? The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the remainder of the NBA season 10,000 times and released its conference title and NBA championship odds for all 22 returning teams.

The Celtics are currently second favorites in the Eastern Conference at +700 according to William Hill. However, the model predicts that they win the East in 7.94 percent of simulations. Meanwhile, Boston is tied for fourth-best NBA title odds at +1600 and are winning the championship in 1.91 percent of the model's sims.