2022 NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Evan Mobley injury opens door for Raptors' Scottie Barnes to steal award

About a week ago, it looked as if the race for the 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year was over. Cleveland big man Evan Mobley, the No. 3 overall pick out of Southern Cal, was a -550 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. However, Mobley struggled in a couple of games and then Monday injured his ankle against Orlando. Mobley will not play again until at least Sunday and more likely next Tuesday if even then. He is down to -275 for ROY, and the door is open for Toronto's Scottie Barnes, who was +450 a week ago but is now +200.

Mobley has been very good in averaging 14.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.6 blocks in helping anchor one of the league's best defenses. Barnes, a mini-surprise No. 4 overall pick out of Florida State (most though the Raptors would take Jalen Suggs, who went No. 5 to Orlando), is averaging 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals.

Per Basketball Reference, Mobley has a player efficiency rating of 15.8 and a win shares mark of 5.1 – which is basically like WAR in baseball. Barnes' PER is 16.3 and his win shares 6.0. Barnes is the only rookie who ranks in the top five in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and minutes and is on pace to become the first rookie since Luka Doncic in 2018-19 to average 15-7-3 in his first season. Barnes has filled multiple roles for Toronto, including playing some point guard.

If the Raptors finish the season ahead of the Cavaliers it might also swing the Rookie of the Year vote in Barnes' favor. Toronto sits sixth in the East, two games ahead of No. 7 Cleveland, which would mean the Cavs would be in the play-in tournament. (Note: If the Raptors do finish fifth or sixth, keep in mind that unvaccinated players on their opponent in the first round of the East playoffs would not be able to play in Toronto.)

Toronto has had two Rookies of the Year but not since Vince Carter in 1999. Frankly, Barnes is the clear value bet right now. Detroit's Cade Cunningham (+1200) is the only other player with odds below +10000 and while the No. 1 overall pick has been great in recent weeks, it's too late for him. 

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