While favorites have won 68.4% of games straight-up this season, that mark drops to a 52% win rate against the spread. That's basically a coin toss, so there are a number of underdogs who are potential backs with Week 11 NFL picks. The Week 11 NFL line for Lions vs. Jaguars has climbed to -14 for Detroit, making it the largest spread of this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs versus Miami, despite Vegas coming off a bye and the Dolphins coming off a short week. Thus, it could be very attractive to include teams like the Jags and Raiders in a Week 11 NFL parlay, if you're feeling the underdogs this week.

Which NFL trends and NFL betting lines could help with your NFL betting strategy? Before you make any Week 11 NFL picks or NFL parlays, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say. 

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Hartstein tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. His weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 90-66-3 (58%, +16.69 units) since its inception in 2022. Anyone who has followed him is WAY UP!

For Week 11, Hartstein has locked in three confident best bets. If you successfully parlay his picks, you're looking at a payout of almost 6-1.

We can tell you Hartstein loves the Rams (-4.5, 43.5) to cover on the road versus New England. "Kudos to New England for taking advantage of a dead Bears' team, but this spread should be more in line with what the Jets laid in Foxborough three weeks ago: a full touchdown. With all his weapons healthy, Matthew Stafford will rebound in a must-win spot," Hartstein told SportsLine.

Hartstein also has locked in two other confident Week 11 bets, including backing a SHOCKING team he expects to hand its opponent "another double-digit loss"! You ABSOLUTELY need to see his picks before betting on NFL Week 11.

So what are Hartstein's Week 11 NFL best bets, and which team shocks the NFL? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Larry Hartstein's Week 11 NFL best bets, all from the expert who is up 16.69 units on NFL ATS picks!