Yankees vs. Braves Monday MLB odds, props: How will New York respond after Sunday's crushing loss?

There is no such thing as a lock in sports. That said, this writer already had counted the Yankees winners Sunday in Miami considering they were leading 7-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning with ace and AL Cy Young Award favorite Gerrit Cole on the mound. They proceeded to melt down in epic fashion, arguably the toughest loss in a season full of them. The Yankees' odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings shifted to +700, with No a -1000 favorite as they open a series at the World Series-favored Braves tonight.

New York was just one inning from claiming its first series win over a team with a winning record since late June. It certainly wasn't Cole's fault, as he allowed only two runs over his six innings of work. But the bullpen imploded, allowing one run in the eighth and five in the bottom of the ninth. Yankees relievers entered Sunday leading the majors in ERA (3.14), WHIP (1.19) and opponents' batting average (.215). All five ninth-inning runs were charged to closer Clay Holmes, who had given up just three runs over his last 35 appearances (34.2 innings) before Sunday. "SLEEPING WITH THE FISHES" is the headline on the back page of Monday's New York Post.

It was the first time the Bombers lost when leading by four runs in the ninth inning since July 11, 2021. New York is 3-8-1 in its last 12 series and has lost six straight rubber games of three-game series. It is five back of the AL's last wild card berth, currently held by Toronto, and is on track to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016. FanGraphs give the Yanks a 6.1% chance of reaching the playoffs, which equates to +1463 on a moneyline. They have 44 games left.

For a few hours there, both the Yankees and Mets were last place in their respective divisions, but the Mets would rally for a win on Sunday night over Atlanta to move a half game ahead of Washington (which won earlier in the day on its own miracle comeback) in the NL East cellar. The New York teams have never both finished a season in last place in their divisions.

Clarke Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) gets the call for the Yankees on Monday. The converted reliever has been one of the Yankees' most consistent starters. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 straight starts and in 17 of his past 19. Does he go deep into games? No, but he's still quite solid. Yankees third baseman DJ LeMahieu, a former batting champion, hasn't played since last Monday due to a calf injury but is expected back in the lineup tonight.

The Braves may be a bit bored right now. They have the best record in the majors and a massive lead in the NL East, but are only slightly above .500 since the break. Matt Olson, for his part, isn't bored. He went bonkers over the weekend in the Mets series and leads the majors with 43 homers and 107 RBI. Olson is down to +1800 to win NL MVP. He was +2500 last week, but it still will be tough to beat out teammate Ronald Acuña Jr. (-650).

No player in franchise history has led the majors in both homers and RBI since 1956, when Hank Aaron had 44 homers and 132 RBI for Milwaukee. Olson has never faced Schmidt but is +245 to go yard tonight. Infielder Ozzie Albies might get the night off after he was pulled from Sunday's game with cramping.

Reigning home run king Aaron Judge is +295 to homer for New York. He has a single and strikeout in three career at-bats against excellent Braves lefty Max Fried (3-1, 2.50 ERA), who beat the Yankees in his only start against them in 2020. 

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