Will the Bengals go bust with Dalton on the shelf?

The Bengals began the day as the AFC's No. 1 seed, with a healthy 16 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl according to SportsLine.

But if the broken thumb on Andy Dalton's throwing hand means he's done for the season, as reports suggest, Cincinnati's chance of winning its first championship would plummet to 1.5 percent, according to the Projection Model.

Dalton (28 TDs, 8 turnovers) hurt himself making a tackle following an intercepted shovel pass early in Sunday's 33-20 home loss to Pittsburgh. The defeat dropped Cincy to 10-3.

Fortunately for the Bengals, Denver lost at home to the Raiders, falling to 10-3. Entering Sunday Night Football, Cincinnati held the No. 2 seed by virtue of a better conference record than Denver. New England (10-2) had regained the top seed pending its game in Houston.

If Dalton misses the rest of the regular season and the Bengals fall to the No. 3 seed, thus not getting a first-round bye, the team would have an 8 percent chance of winning it all, per SportsLine.

Against the Steelers, Cincy backup AJ McCarron hit 22 of 32 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. It was the first extended playing time of his young career.

Entering Week 14, most sportsbooks listed the Bengals at 7/1 or 8/1 to win Super Bowl 50. Their odds will rise significantly when Super Bowl futures are re-posted Monday.

"They're still going to make the playoffs, but if AJ McCarron is under center we won't give them much of a chance to win the championship, or even the AFC," said Scott Cooley, odds consultant for BookMaker Sportsbook.

"The defense remains one of the best in the league, but you need a quality offense to keep up with the New Englands and Pittsburghs of the AFC. I don't think McCarron can provide that. Andy Dalton was having the best year of his young career and Cincinnati should be praying he can make it back for the second season."