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Wild Card Round NFL power ratings: How to value all 14 playoff teams for ATS picks during the postseason

Get the edge over the sportsbooks in the wild-card round and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines

The 18-week gauntlet of the regular season is over, and 14 teams remain competing for the Super Bowl title. That list includes the Detroit Lions, who won the NFC North for the first time ever and secured their first division title in 30 years. Expect the atmosphere to be wild at Ford Field on Sunday when Detroit fans "welcome" Matthew Stafford back into the building for their first home playoff game in decades.

The list of playoff teams also includes the Houston Texans, who were tied for the longest odds to make the Super Bowl prior to the season following a 3-13-1 season. Kudos to first-year coach DeMeco Ryans and a front office that went for it in the draft by selecting C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson in the top three, both of whom played key roles in bringing a division title to Houston. You'll probably hear in betting circles this week about the poor performance against the spread of quarterbacks making their first playoff appearance, and Stroud is one of four who qualify along with Mason Rudolph, Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa.

One quarterback who bucked that trend during the 2020 season: Baker Mayfield, who had a massive game in Pittsburgh to give the Cleveland Browns their first playoff win since 1994. He's made his return to the postseason with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as one of two home underdogs (along with Houston), as have the Browns themselves, with former Super Bowl winner Joe Flacco going from unemployed in mid-November to favored on the road in the playoffs less than two months later.

The Browns come into the wild-card round as one of three teams who rested starters leading into their first-round matchup, a list that also includes the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams will get to face opponents that suffered significant injuries in Week 18, with the Miami Dolphins down even more players on the defensive side of the ball after Andrew Van Ginkel's injury and left wondering how healthy Tyreek Hill will be after he appeared to get dinged up late. The Lions, who had the option of resting players, instead went all out to beat the Vikings and watched rookie standout Sam LaPorta carted off in the process.

No team may be more beat up coming out of Week 18 than the Philadelphia Eagles, who saw A.J. Brown, Cam Jurgens, Reed Blankenship and Sydney Brown leave their loss against the Giants and not return. That's on top of Jalen Hurts suffering a finger injury prior to getting pulled for Marcus Mariota, and DeVonta Smith already missing the game with an ankle sprain. The NFL at least gave the Eagles an extra day to recover by scheduling them for the Monday game.

None of those teams we discussed will have the highest power ratings in their conference among the six playing this weekend. That goes to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC, who I marked up a half-point and now have third alone well behind the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. The Bills have an argument to be in that top tier, but dumb mistakes continue to plague their offense, and if those sprout up in a playoff game against a team like the Ravens, it might mean the end of their season. In the NFC, the Cowboys are at least a point clear of the rest of the NFC teams outside of San Francisco, but we'll see if game management issues sink Mike McCarthy's squad as they have at times in the past.

If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. 

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for the wild-card round? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see playoff power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!

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R.J. White
R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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