Who are the best values to win Coach of the Year?
There are several paths to NFL Coach of the Year.
You can lap the field, like Ron Rivera's 2015 Panthers (15-1) or Bill Belichick's 2007 Patriots (16-0).
You can turn a loser into a big winner, like Jim Harbaugh with the 49ers. He took over a 6-10 team and they went 13-3 in 2011.
Or you can surpass expectations and overcome high-profile injuries. Bruce Arians did that with the 2014 Cardinals. Projected by Vegas to go 7-9, Arizona started 9-1 and got to 11 wins despite Carson Palmer missing 10 games.
| Â Coach | Team | Odds |
| Â Bruce Arians | Cardinals | 7/1 |
| Â Mike Zimmer | Vikings | 7/1 |
| Â Ron Rivera | Panthers | 8/1 |
| Â Bill Belichick | Patriots | 9/1 |
| Â Mike McCarthy | Packers | 11/1 |
| Â Pete Carroll | Seahawks | 13/1 |
| Â Mike Tomlin | Steelers | 14/1 |
| Â Andy Reid | Chiefs | 16/1 |
| Â Marvin Lewis | Bengals | 16/1 |
| Â Gus Bradley | Jaguars | 18/1 |
| Â Jack Del Rio | Raiders | 20/1 |
| Â Todd Bowles | Jets | 25/1 |
| Â Gary Kubiak | Broncos | 30/1 |
| Â Jason Garrett | Cowboys | 30/1 |
| Â John Harbaugh | Ravens | 35/1 |
Against that backdrop, let's examine newly released odds from Sportsbook.ag for 2016 NFL Coach of the Year.
Start by eliminating Arians and Rivera. They've alternated winning the past four years.
Their teams carry high expectations and I don't see either winning the 13 or 14 games it would take to nab a third trophy. Plus, Belichick is the only three-time winner since Chuck Knox in 1984.
Looking lower down the odds board, three value plays stand out:
Mike McCarthy, Packers (11/1)
Among active coaches, McCarthy's .653 winning percentage (104-55-1) ranks second to Belichick's .664.
He's never won Coach of the Year during his 10-year tenure. This could be his year.
Coming off a down season by their standards, the Packers are poised to retake the NFC North.
Jordy Nelson returns, Jared Cook signed as a down-the-seam threat and the pass rush will improve with Clay Matthews playing outside linebacker.
McCarthy needs 12-plus wins to claim his first Coach of the Year award. Luckily, his team is hungry -- and more than capable.
Gus Bradley, Jaguars (18/1)
It's not easy betting on a guy who's 12-36 (.250) as an NFL head coach.
Still, the table is set for the Jags to make a major leap. If they go 10-6 and grab a Wild Card, Bradley is your winner.
No team had a better offseason. Jacksonville added five impact defensive players through the draft and free agency. Moreover, the Jags get 2015 first-rounder Dante Fowler, a dangerous pass rusher, back from the ACL injury that wiped out his rookie season.
I love the Chris Ivory signing. T.J. Yeldon will be more effective playing fewer snaps; as a rookie last year, he played the eighth-most snaps among running backs despite missing four games with injuries.
Jacksonville already had a lethal passing attack; now it has a running game and the NFL's most improved defense.
Jack Del Rio, Raiders (20/1)
The Raiders haven't produced a winning season since 2002. If they get to 10 wins -- playoff berth or not -- Del Rio will get serious consideration.
And Oakland has the necessary talent.
The Raiders overhauled their secondary and, after landing Kelechi Osemele, have given Derek Carr a Top-3 offensive line. Carr and Amari Cooper are emerging as one of the NFL's top big-play combinations.
After losing five games by six or fewer points last year, I look for Oakland to finally post a winning season. The 20/1 payoff on Del Rio is too sweet to pass up.
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