Which teams exceeded SportsLine's expectations?
All season long, SportsLine's job in the Power Ratings was to tell us the likelihood of a team being great at the end of the season.
It was my job to make sense of what happened.
| The method behind the Power Ratings |
| SportsLine's Power Ratings are based on a team's Neutral Win%. To calculate a team's Neutral Win% we simulate them playing every other team in the league thousands of times on a neutral court. Teams are rated in descending order of Average Neutral Win% vs. the other 29 teams. SportsLine's Power Ratings are objective and numbers based, vastly different from subjective power rankings. Our method gives all teams the same schedule and we remove any bias from the analysis. Our Power Ratings are based on healthy rosters. Any player not out for the season is assumed to be 100 percent. This method allows us to compare their actual Win% to their Neutral Win% and determine which teams have over or under performed relative to their talent. Neutral Win% is not consistent between rankings. For example, the difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 team could be wider than the difference between No. 15 and No. 20. While our sequential ranking is how we display, we provide the Neutral Win% so you can really identify how much of a gap there is between teams and whether the gap between two teams is really significant or not. |
Sometimes, that was very easy with the rise of the Portland Trail Blazers and Charlotte Hornets.
Sometimes that was very confusing with trying to make sense of the Houston Rockets or Chicago Bulls or Washington Wizards.
By season's end, what we knew in the preseason is what we know now. The Golden State Warriors are the unstoppable force that also happens to be an immovable object.
The San Antonio Spurs are a torture rack.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder delight us with their star-studded potential and befuddle us with their inability to get out of their own way.
And then we have a cluster of teams in each conference trying to prove their worthy of believing in them.
In the end, there were times when SportsLine looked like it was drunk and I analyzed those numbers like I had too many as well.
But there's one truth we can all agree on: the Houston Rockets do not care about anything.
SPORTSLINE'S NBA POWER RATINGS
| RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | WIN PROJ. | ATS% | PLAYOFF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Golden State Warriors
Here we are. The Warriors were pegged as the team to beat in the preseason by SportsLine and six months later, we're looking at a team one win away from securing the greatest regular season of all time. In a season of crazy stats, here's one more. Klay Thompson has the record for most threes by someone not named Steph Curry and nobody cares.
| 77.7% | 72.9 | 55.7% | 100% |
| 2 |
San Antonio Spurs
When the season started, the Spurs were pegged as the No. 3 team by SportsLine, just behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. What changed in that time? We've found out the Spurs don't just have the most dominant team in terms of margin of victory, but they have the best defense since the rule changes in 2004-05. It's also the best Spurs team we've ever seen, which says something.
| 69.8% | 66.5 | 53.8% | 100% |
| 3 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder started the season as the No. 4 team in Power Ratings, and struggled with overtaking the Cavaliers and Spurs all season. Sometimes they'd jump to second; sometimes they'd settle for fourth. We know their stars are superb, but can the rest of the supporting cast help them? It sucks for them they have two historical teams ahead of them in the West.
| 68.3% | 55.0 | 43.6% | 100% |
| 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
What's ridiculous about the Cavaliers is they have LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving on the team. They're deep in talent and supporting players. They have as close to a guarantee for a Finals berth as you could ever hope for. And nobody cares. Nobody cares about this team anymore because they're just supposed to be a meal for the team that comes out of the West. They were interesting when they fired David Blatt though.
| 65.0% | 57.6 | 46.8% | 100% |
| 5 |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks started the season seventh in the Power Ratings, and they'll have moved up two spots when it's all said and done. How did they do it? As opposed to last season, they built their way up in the second half of the year. Their defense is only second to the Spurs and their offense has looked more Hawks-y as the season has progressed. They were shot down last year but they could prey on the East in the postseason.
| 62.3% | 48.5 | 52.6% | 100% |
| 6 |
Portland Trail Blazers
How about those pesky Blazers? Their preseason rating had them 21st and they've managed to establish themselves higher than even the Los Angeles Clippers by season's end. What Neil Olshey has built and Terry Stotts has designed on the court is truly remarkable. It's hard to tell if they can get to the second round, but Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are feared in the postseason.
| 57.4% | 43.8 | 54.3% | 100% |
| 7 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are another team that had a huge jump. SportsLine was one of the few projection models that didn't love the Celtics in the preseason, but a month in the Celtics were mainstays in the top 10 and often fighting for the fifth spot. I'll say it again. Brad Stevens is pulling off an Ocean's Eleven heist with 11 Scott Caan's and it's crazy impressive.
| 57.1% | 47.7 | 51.9% | 100% |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers started the year pegged for fifth and I don't think anybody batted an eye. Then Blake Griffin missed 45 straight games, and the Clippers may have received a blessing from him punching the equipment manager. It helped develop the roles of the supporting guys during his absence. But he needs to get in game shape and if they're out in the first or second round, it'll be "same ole Clippers," fairly or unfairly.
| 56.8% | 53.6 | 50.7% | 100% |
| 9 |
Miami Heat
The Heat climbed from 12th to ninth by season's end, which is pretty remarkable when you look at the injuries on the roster and Chris Bosh once again having a blood clot scare. They also moved Hassan Whiteside to the bench as a super Sixth Man and now they look to be incredibly dangerous in the postseason with or without Bosh. We should praise Erik Spoelstra more than we do.
| 55.3% | 48.3 | 51.9% | 100% |
| 10 |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets were rated 23rd heading into the season and even in the first three months, SportsLine wasn't buying into Charlotte and had them still in the bottom 10 of the NBA. But Steve Clifford has been brilliant in adapting to a more modern style of offense to match his versatile defense. Kemba Walker and Nic Batum are a great duo and this team should terrify their opponent in the first round.
| 54.5% | 47.6 | 50.6% | 100% |
| 11 |
Houston Rockets
Houston was pegged as a top-seven team and all the Rockets have done is make you wish they didn't exist. They have the talent. They have the depth. They have the analytics. But they don't have the heart. They don't have the motivation. They have enough pride to care just enough to remain in the playoff race but this team should be demolished and we'll pretend it never happened.
| 53.8% | 40.7 | 43.8% | 79.1% |
| 12 |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors were 14th to start the year and hovered in the top eight for most of the season. I think the reason they slot in at No. 12 by the end of the campaign is they haven't really been going all out for the last month. They've rested guys and DeMarre Carroll is still being worked back into the rotation. They're the second best team in the East, whether SportsLine agrees or not.
| 53.4% | 55.6 | 53.2%Â | 100% |
| 13 |
Indiana Pacers
Their end-of-season rating is a perfect encapsulation of this team. They were supposed to play faster and smaller and smarter. They were moving Paul George to more of a stretch-4 to look like a modern team. They still struggle on offense and they're the third best defense in the NBA. They changed without moving anywhere statistically. What was their preseason rating? 13th. Things changed but nothing changed.
| 51.9% | 44.5 | 49.4% | 100% |
| 14 |
Detroit Pistons
SportsLine really believed in Stan Van Gundy and his team heading into the season. They were pegged 11th in the Power Ratings, and have fallen a bit. However, they are a playoff team and have managed to impress a lot of people without much of a bench. The trade deadline acquisition of Tobias Harris makes them very dangerous in the postseason for Cleveland or Toronto.
| 51.5% | 43.4 | 53.3% | 100% |
| 15 |
Chicago Bulls
It's good they didn't make the playoffs. They were rated ninth in the preseason and while they're still league average, nothing has worked out for them. Fred Hoiberg couldn't command the team. Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Jimmy Butler couldn't stay healthy. Derrick Rose couldn't matter. They need a change and missing the postseason should be a wakeup call for Bulls' management.
| 51.4% | 41.9 | 42.5% | 0.0% |
| 16 |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz went through the big injuries to Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, and Alec Burks, and yet managed to only drop one spot once the season was done. You have to wonder where they would be and what they would look like at relative full health all season. Would they be the No. 4 seed in the West? Would they be a threat for the second round? They're building something great but need a bit more time and health.
| 50.8% | 40.7 | 51.9% | 20.9% |
| 17 |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks also just fall one spot despite having so many injuries and guys trying to play through pain during the season. We all know Dirk Nowitzki was still very effective, and who can forget the great Zaza Pachulia All-Star campaign of 2015-16? But Rick Carlisle getting by with a guard rotation of D-Will, Barea, Devin Harris, Felton, and Wes Matthews off an Achilles' tear is stupid good coaching.
| 49.0% | 42.5 | 54.4% | 100% |
| 18 |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards didn't move once it was all said and done. They were pegged at 18th in the preseason and that's where they end up. Why anybody, including myself, thought Randy Wittman could coach a roster sort of designed to play smaller and faster looks foolish in hindsight. John Wall deserves better than this and the Wizards should try to fix what's wro ... and they're sticking with Ernie Grunfeld.
| 48.6% | 40.5 | 51.3% | 0.0% |
| 19 |
Orlando Magic
The Magic climbed three spots by season's end, and during the first two months of the season really looked like they were headed somewhere promising. We keep talking about this young core and how promising it is, but I'm not sure that's all that accurate. They're going to focus on free agency this summer, but really this team needs a great direction to be headed in and I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. Rebuilding is hard.
| 48.3% | 35.4 | 55.7% | 0.0% |
| 20 |
Denver Nuggets
Denver started the season pegged 28th and they'll finish in the top 20. The coaching job by Michael Malone, especially building as the season goes and despite key injuries, is entirely impressive. Denver's young core won't rival the Wolves or Bucks, but they have so much flexibility moving forward, they can pounce when a star becomes available. They're in great shape going into next year.
| 47.3% | 33.2 | 52.6% | 0.0% |
| 21 |
New York Knicks
The good news is Kristaps Porzingis is a Latvian god sent to the Mecca of Basketball to save their franchise. Also, they moved up four spots from the preseason. The bad news is we think Phil Jackson wants out, and he's thinking about giving Kurt Rambis the real coaching job and not just some interim stretch. Go hug a Knicks fan the next time you see them.
| 47.1% | 32.0 | 54.3% | 0.0% |
| 22 |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings moved up two whole spots. They tried to fire their coach nearly a half dozen times. Dissension and chaos have ruled a season when the Kings felt they had a good enough roster to make the playoffs. The good news is they cracked 30 wins finally, but they keep trying to leap forward without knowing where to jump. When are they finally going to have strong direction that empowers DeMarcus Cousins on the court?
| 45.0% | 33.3 | 47.4% | 0.0% |
| 23 |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks were 17th in the preseason, and looking back we should've known better. Greg Monroe is a fine offensive player but a red carpet to the hoop on defense. Michael Carter-Williams isn't really good at anything. They were 40 percent of the expected starting lineup for a team big on defense and versatility. Their demise makes sense, especially factoring in injuries, but at least they've unlocked Giannis Antetokounmpo's full abilities outside of shooting.
| 44.4% | 33.5 | 49.4% | 0.0% |
| 24 |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies were sixth in the preseason and if they still had Mike Conley and Marc Gasol healthy, they'd be a top 10 team. Based on what's left of the roster, you can't really argue with where SportsLine has them at the end of the season. It's been an unfortunate turn of events for them, but at least they held onto that playoff revenue. Now convince Conley to stay.
| 41.6% | 42.1 | 52.6% | 100% |
| 25 |
Brooklyn Nets
They moved up two spots. With all of the injuries and the lack of talent and shutting Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young down at the end of the season and the coach firing and switching up the front office, the Nets actually improved their preseason rating. Their reward? Surrender your pick to the Celtics. At least Sean Marks has a lot of time to scout the 2019 draft prospects.
| 40.7% | 21.4 | 48.1% | 0.0% |
| 26 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
His name is Karl-Anthony Towns. He is not here to be your friend. He is not here to help your city. He is not here to save the planet. He is here to destroy you. He is here to destroy your friends. He is here to capture your city. He is here to dominate the game of basketball. You have three years to prepare for it. Then there's nothing you can do but pray.
| 39.5% | 28.6 | 48.1% | 0.0% |
| 27 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The process died when Sam Hinkie resigned and now Bryan Colangelo controls their fate. The good news is Jahlil Okafor is a solid young player and the Sixers, despite barely winning double-digit games, ended up moving from 30th to 27th. I don't know if that says more about them than the other teams below them. But here we are. Long live the process.
| 35.1% | 10.1 | 46.8% | 0.0% |
| 28 |
Phoenix Suns
Their main guys got injured, they fired two assistants long before they fired their coach, then they fired their coach, they traded their malcontent and now we have no idea if we should buy into their future or just expect more of this chaos. The good news is, despite falling from 20th in the preseason, we discovered the feathery touch of Devin Booker's jumper.
| 32.0% | 22.4 | 45.0% | 0.0% |
| 29 |
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans were pegged as a top 10 team in the preseason. Anthony Davis was supposed to challenge for his first MVP award. The Pelicans were going to be different with Alvin Gentry. Then the injuries came rolling in and quickly SportsLine dropped them into the bottom half of the league. With what's left of this roster, 29th might actually be too nice of a rating.
| 23.3% | 30.4 | 45.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
Los Angeles Lakers
After this week, we'll never get to see Kobe Bryant in an NBA game. Despite all of the dysfunction with the coach and the roster, it's truly remarkable to have experienced 20 years of what Kobe brought to the game. I don't want to sully that with some snide comment about Byron Scott. Thank you, Kobe. Congratulations to you and your personal assistant Byron Scott on a great career.
| 21.0% | 16.3 | 43.8% | 0.0% |
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