I knocked the Kansas City Chiefs down a half-point last week coming off their loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but I wasn't that worried about Kansas City. That Colts game had a lot of things go wrong that didn't seem like repeatable issues. Turns out, I shouldn't have moved them at all, and one week later they have a good case for being the league's best team, even over the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills of course are dealing with a mountain of injuries, particularly on the defensive side, but their offense hasn't exactly looked unstoppable the last few weeks. But what the Chiefs did to the Bucs, a team with an outstanding defense -- particularly against the run -- looked like a Super Bowl-level performance. Kansas City rushed for 189 yards in the game and Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns while looking like the greatest backyard football player ever on several occasions. On a neutral field this week, I'd be hard-pressed not to make the Chiefs favorites over the Bills, but we'll see how healthy the latter is in January. Even saying that, I couldn't move the Bills' rating down too much coming off a win, so these teams are tied in my Week 5 power ratings.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Broncos are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Vikings are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Rams may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Colts are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Rams should be favored by two points against the Broncos on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here.

I've dived into each Week 5 game and evaluated my Week 5 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 5? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 5 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!