Week 5 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of October 1st, 2022

One-third of the 2022 college football regular season is complete and while I feel confident in my preseason national championship pick, Ohio State, I'd like a re-do on my Heisman Trophy choice. If you remember from prior to Week 1, I chose Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who got hurt that week and hasn't played much since then. Four catches for 36 yards in September isn't winning a Heisman, no matter how dynamic the player.

So I'd like to make the early case for two +5000 long shots on which I placed bets on this past week:
-Alabama OLB Will Anderson, Jr.
-Washington QB Michael Penix, Jr. 

Let's start with Anderson, who would become the first defensive player to win the Heisman since Michigan CB and. NFL Hall of Famer Charles Woodson in 1997. Widely projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Anderson already has 4.5 sacks and an interception return for a touchdown in September. Last year, he only had two sacks over his first four games before racking up 17.5 in total en route to a fifth-place finish in the Heisman voting. If Alabama runs the table through the regular season and SEC Championship Game, voters may choose to credit the Crimson Tide's suffocating defense instead of giving QB Bryce Young back-to-back Heismans. The value is incredible for Anderson at 50-1.

As for Penix, the Huskies' QB has been arguably the nation's best thus far, completing 64% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only one interception in four games. His total of 309 passing yards against Stanford on Saturday was his lowest all season. Washington's offense has looked unstoppable with the Indiana transfer at the helm. Don't forget that this is the same player who threw for 491 yards and five scores against Ohio State in Indiana's 42-35 defeat at the Horseshoe in 2020. Without USC or Utah on the regular season schedule, it's not inconceivable that Washington could be 11-1 or 12-0 heading into the Pac-12 Championship Game. I'll even take it a step further and say that the Huskies have an outside chance at making the College Football Playoff. At 50-1, betting on Penix's continued success against the subpar Pac-12 seems like a great value bet.

I'm not saying to throw your whole bankroll on either player, but I think there's a case to be made that both of them offer the early season upside necessary to contend for the sport's biggest individual trophy.

It looks like we're finally turning things around after a profitable Week 4. My picks went 9-6 in Week 4 for a season combined record of 31-32... so close to .500. I finally hit a conference parlay last week (thank you Georgia for not scoring more against Kent State) so hopefully this is the start of a profitable trend in this column. This was the first time all season that as soon as lines came out officially (on Sunday 9/25), I bet three games impulsively without thinking twice. Stay tuned for those and my explanations later in this column.

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. Hit one of those all season and it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Kentucky +6.5 at Ole Miss
Arkansas +17.5 vs. Alabama
Georgia -28 at Missouri
Parlay Odds: +596 (1.25 units)

It's so good to see I'm actually at plus units in one of these conferences. Let's go for two in a row! I had to do a double-take to realize that Kentucky is ranked 7th in the AP Poll. Ole Miss is 14th and that makes sense, but 7th for a team who struggled against the MAC's Northern Illinois (in a 31-23 win last week) seems a bit much. Either way, Mark Stoops has done a great job at UK. John Calipari should be jealous. With a potential first round pick at QB in Will Levis, I think the Wildcats will give Ole Miss a big scare in Oxford, or even win the game outright. The spread feels about 2.5 points too heavy. What am I missing here with Arkansas? They should be undefeated if not for the flukiest of missed field goals against Texas A&M last week. Now they're getting three scores at home against Nick Saban's team, who only beat Texas by one measly point on the road the other week? Sign me up please. Last year, 'Bama only won by a touchdown at home.

I hate playing 28 point spreads, especially on the road. But did you see how Missouri lost to Auburn last week? A missed 20-yard field goal at the end of regulation and an untouched fumble into the end zone in overtime. Georgia beat them 43-6 last year and coming off a lackluster effort against Kent State, I wouldn't be surprised if it was 52-10 this time around.

Game Record: 3-0 last week, 6-6 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 1 of 4 overall (+1.96 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Michigan -10.5 at Iowa
Illinois-Wisconsin Under 43.5
Nebraska -5.5 vs. Indiana
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I know the Wolverines weren't at their sharpest against Maryland, and despite the seven-point win, there was no point in that game that I thought the Terrapins had a legitimate chance to win the game outright. Last year, Michigan beat Iowa 42-3 in the B1G Championship Game. Considering how bad the Hawkeyes' offense is, I can't see them scoring more than 10, which means 21 is enough for Michigan to cover. I'll take my chances. I love the storyline of Bret Bielema against his old team. That angle didn't work so well in last year's 24-0 loss, but you know what did work so well? Betting the Under. Since he took over the Fighting Illini, Bielema's teams have combined for more than 44 points in a game only six times in 16 possible games. SportsLine's model likes it too, so therefore I'll play the Under 43.5 with little hesitation. For some reason, I think this is the week that Nebraska figures it out. Coming off a bye, Mickey Joseph's team gets a soft spot against about as subpar 3-1 team as I've seen all season. I just don't think Indiana is that good. I'm somewhat hesitant to lay the points but -235 is too big of a money line to throw in to this parlay. Nebraska's offense scores 30+ and the Huskers cover -- somehow -- with that porous defense.

Game Record: 0-3 last week, 4-9 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 4 overall (-5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Wake Forest +6.5 at Florida State
North Carolina State +6.5 at Clemson
Georgia Tech-Pittsburgh Over 48.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I have to admit, picking the ACC games this week is increasingly difficult due to the projected path of Hurricane Ian. I'm writing this column on Tuesday and will try to lock the lines in early, but who knows if and when the Wake Forest-Florida State and NC State-Clemson games will be played. If they are played, I can't imagine the weather will look great in either. For each, give me the road underdog getting 6.5 points. It's quite possible, though some may call me crazy, that the road 'dogs are actually the better team in both matchups. Wake Forest should've beaten Clemson last week if not for some strange end-of-game play calling that was a bit conservative for my liking. I liked NC State as my ACC champion before the season and though Clemson's offense is light years better than it was in 2021, I still wouldn't be shocked to see an outright upset in the likely rain-soaked conditions. If you think somehow the effects of the hurricane will miss Death Valley, the Over 40 would seemingly be a lock. Every trend points to the Under in GT-Pitt but I'm hopeful that with the removal of lackluster coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets might finally show something offensively. We'll call it the new coach bounce. It didn't work for Nebraska or Arizona State but we'll give it one last try. My recommendation is to tread lightly on this parlay due to the weather uncertainty in the first two games I mentioned.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 7-5 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 4 overall (-4.5 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

Oklahoma -6.5 at TCU
Oklahoma State ML (+115) at Baylor
Kansas ML (+135) vs. Iowa State
Parlay Odds: +865 (1 unit)

Impulsive play No. 1: The Sooners' defense was a disaster against Kansas State last week. I'd be shocked if coach Brent Venables didn't fix things immediately, even though Oklahoma faces a tricky road game against an undefeated team in Fort Worth. Take the Sooners by 10+. Last year the Cowboys defeated the Bears 24-14 in the regular season before being stopped on the 1-yard line in the Big 12 Championship Game. Though the game is in Waco, the revenge angle is the play here and I'll gladly take +115 for Mike Gundy's squad to win a tricky one on the road coming off a bye week. Kansas has been the darlings of college football, off to a shocking 4-0 start in 2022. Iowa State doesn't pass the eye test to me and Kansas does. This line looks just wrong. Kansas wins outright by a touchdown.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 8-5 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 4 overall (-4 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Washington -3 at UCLA
Washington State -4 vs. California
Arizona -17.5 vs. Colorado
Parlay Odds: +596 (1.5 units)

Impulsive play No. 3: I sang the praises of Michael Penix, Jr. earlier in the column and now the seemingly unstoppable UW offense is going on the road, to the lethargic Rose Bowl, on a Friday night, to take on 4-0 UCLA. The Bruins haven't played any team of note to date and had to beat South Alabama in Week 3 on a last-second field goal. The Huskies win this one by a touchdown at the minimum. I know Cal roughed up my Arizona Wildcats last week but I'm still not a believer in them. Quite simply, Arizona's defense was just that bad last Saturday. WSU is coming off a crushing defeat against Oregon (despite the amazing backdoor cover) and while this line is a little fishy with how low it is, I think the Cougars are also a touchdown better than the Golden Bears. Wazzu won 21-6 in 2021 and while both teams have plenty of new personnel, I still think the line should be at least 6 for WSU.

I saw this stat on Twitter on Monday courtesy of Colorado insider Brian Howell (@brianhowell33): Only six Power 5 teams in the history of college football have opened the season with four consecutive losses of 25+ points (none since 1957)... and this year's Colorado squad is one of them. It's a good thing I didn't include my beloved Wildcats in last week's Pac-12 picks as they got smoked in the second half by Cal, but I full expect a bounce-back performance against the worst Power 5 team in college football, the Buffaloes. Impulsive play No. 3: Arizona 45, Colorado 17. Lay the points and feel confident.

Game Record: 2-1 last week, 6-7 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 4 overall (-5 units)

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Week 5 College Football parlay picks

Arkansas +17.5 vs. Alabama
Georgia -28 at Missouri
Michigan -10.5 at Iowa
Illinois-Wisconsin Under 43.5
Oklahoma -6.5 at TCU
Kansas ML (+135) vs. Iowa State
Washington -3 at UCLA
Arizona -17.5 vs. Colorado

Parlay Odds: +21620 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 4 overall (-2 units)

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