Week 4 Fantasy Football Helper: QB Rankings and DFS Plays

If you're starting your Fantasy football Week 4 research or working on DFS lineups for this weekend's games, you NEED to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs' Fantasy football draft rankings were the seventh-most accurate in the nation in 2019, per FantasyPros, and he is back with his exclusive Week 1 Fantasy Football Helper for SportsLine users.

Last season, Gibbs projected big-time breakouts for Lamar Jackson, Chris Godwin, and Dalvin Cook. He also identified Darren Waller as the top late-round tight end. Anyone who followed Gibbs' draft advice in 2019 was well on their way to a league title.

Now, Gibbs has projected every Fantasy-relevant QB's stats and come up with stunning projections. 

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 4: Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow was drafted as the QB23 on average, but Gibbs ranked him as the QB14 heading into the season and has him as his QB11 for Week 4.

Gibbs also is calling for a QB you aren't even thinking about to finish in the top 15 at his position! This player could be the difference between winning BIG or going home with nothing.

So who are the best players to target at the QB position in Week 4? And which QB that you aren't thinking about is set to put up a monster point total? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

Tier 1 -- Auto Starts
Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson

Each of these quarterbacks play for teams that are implied for 30 or more points in Week 4. You should be starting each without second thought.

Tier 2 -- "Pretty good. Prettaaay, prettaaay, pretty good."
Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Joe Burrow

The second tier is super deep this week. There are 10 quarterbacks who I would confidently lock into lineups in Week 4. All of these dudes are either facing one of the league's worst pass defenses or playing in a projected shootout. 

Tier 3 -- The upside is high, but don't ignore the red flags!
Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gardner Minshew

Stafford -- The Lions are implied for 25 points and are expected to be playing from behind against the Saints. New Orleans' defense hasn't put up much resistance over the past two weeks, as Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers each passed for 282 yards and three touchdowns. We haven't seen Stafford get back to his gunslinging 2019 ways, as his average depth of target is down from an insane 10.6 yards per attempt to 7.9 in 2020. With Kenny Golladay continuing to get closer to 100 percent health, there's a chance we see a shift to a more aggressive downfield attack.

Update: With the Saints missing several members of their secondary, Detroit should have much more success in this matchup. Stafford has been moved up to QB10 in my rankings, and he'll move ahead of Matt Ryan if either of Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley sit out.

Brees -- On the other side of this projected shootout we find Drew Brees. From a statistical perspective, Brees bounced back nicely on Sunday Night Football, although he was again ultra conservative. He didn't attempt a single pass that went 20-plus yards downfield, and only three of his 36 attempts even traveled 15 yards in the air. I expect him to find success against a Lions defense that ranks last in the NFL in pressure rate, but his upside is dependent on good luck in the touchdown or yardage after the catch departments due to the nature of the pass attempts Brees is being limited to in his age-42 season.

Fitzmagic -- One player ranked outside of Tier 2 who has the upside to score as a top-10 option in Week 4 is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's facing a banged-up Seattle defense that has allowed an unbelievable 440 passing yards per game. This isn't all on Seattle's defense -- they've actually done a decent job at limiting opponents' first few drives -- but when you combine that with Russell Wilson's excellency, teams facing the Seahawks have been forced into an ultra aggressive downfield passing gameplan in the second half. The over/under in this game (54.5 points) is the third-highest on the slate, and the Dolphins have a healthy 24-point implied team total. Unless the game gets completely out of hand (Miami is only a 6.5-point underdog), the Dolphins should remain aggressive through the air for the entirety of this one.

Minshew -- All of the hype around Minshew Mania and Shenault SZN came crashing down on Thursday night, but the Jags get a nice bounce-back spot against the Bengals after a long week of rest. Minshew seemed to miss his top weapon on Thursday, and he should have D.J. Chark back for this one. Another problem was the pass rush -- Minshew was pressured on 37 percent of his dropbacks (eighth-highest in Week 3), and he completed just 50 percent of his attempts when under pressure. He'll face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 29th in pressure rate in Week 4. PFF has the Bengals' pass rush graded as the worst in the NFL. Cincy was only able to pressure Carson Wentz at a 23 percent rate in Week 3, and his offensive line looked like the worst in the NFL prior to that game. Minshew should bounce back in this spot, and there is sneaky shootout potential if Burrow's offensive line can hold up long enough to allow him to string some drives together.

Tier 4 -- Usable QB2s for superflex or deep leagues
Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins

Goff -- The ceiling is much higher than this ranking would suggest, as the Rams have the second-highest implied team total on the board. If he happens to be the one responsible for most of those touchdowns, Goff could finish as a top-10 QB. He's likely going to have to get there on touchdowns, though, because the Rams shouldn't be expected to top 30-32 passing attempts. He's thrown the rock just 31, 27, and 32 times in L.A.'s three games, and the Rams rank third-to-last in situation neutral (when the score of the game is within six points) pass rate. They want to control the game on the ground, and they should be able to do so as 13-point favorites.

Mayfield -- Baker hasn't been required to throw more than 23 passes in either of the past two games, but that should change in Week 4. The Browns are 4.5 point underdogs in the game with the second-highest implied team total on the slate. Dallas' defense has allowed nine passing touchdowns to Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson over the past two weeks, and their secondary is banged-up heading into this matchup. The floor is always low with Baker, but he brings a ton of upside in this game environment.

Cousins -- The Vikings bounced back nicely after a disastrous Week 2 outing, and they are implied for 25 points against Houston's defense in what should be a high-scoring affair. The Texans have been much more beatable on the ground than through the air thus far, and Minnesota would prefer to attack on the ground. The Vikes are listed as 4.5-point underdogs, and I am expecting Houston's offense to play well in this game, so we should see Cousins remain fairly aggressive through the air. There is a clear path to a low-volume performance from Cousins though, if this game doesn't play out as expected.

Tier 5 -- Break glass in case of emergency
Tom Brady, Nick Mullens, Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Wentz

Brady -- He's finished as a top-10 Fantasy QB in two of the first three weeks, but I'm staying far away from Brady in this spot. He could get there if all of Tampa Bay's touchdowns come from him, but I'd rather not take that chance.

Mullens -- The Niners are implied for 26.5 points against the Eagles, and their offensive play volume could be up in this matchup. The Eagles have averaged the eighth-most opponent plays per game this season, and we could see Mullen push for close to 40 attempts if Philadelphia can keep the game competitive. The way to beat Philly's defense is through the air, and it looks as if Mullens will get George Kittle back for this game. Mullens should finish as a top-20 QB in this spot, and there's upside for more.

Bridgewater -- The Panthers have a healthy 24-point implied team total against the Cardinals, in one of the many games with a 50-plus point over/under (51.5) on the week. Given the amount of other strong options available at QB, I'd rather not trust Bridgewater. However, if you need a fill-in option in a superflex league for Ben Roethlisberger (I'm in this exact scenario and am starting Teddy B) or Ryan Tannehill, Bridgewater should perform well in this spot.

Wentz -- We saw Wentz use his legs more often in Week 3, which allowed him to finish as the QB11 even though he posted a season-low 225 passing yards. If we can expect anywhere close to the nine carries for 65 yards on the ground from Wentz going forward, his Fantasy season might just be salvaged. The Eagles are implied for just 19.5 points against the Niners, and we saw San Fransisco's banged-up defensive unit shut down Daniel Jones and the Giants in Week 3. The Eagles aren't quite as dysfunctional as the Giants at this point, but it's closer than their fans would like to admit. There is a lot of risk attached with starting Wentz in this spot, but the upside is there if he is aggressive as a rusher again.

Tier 6 -- "We don't like to say 'no' here, so I'll just say 'nah, bro."
Justin Herbert, Philip Rivers, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskel

From an implied team total perspective, Rivers (23.75) and Carr (24.5) stand out among the names in this tier. Both players are playing without multiple starting receivers and are in difficult matchups. They're close to Tier 5 consideration, but I'd rather just not start anyone from this tier.

Early look at the QB position for DFS purposes in Week 4:

• Russell Wilson gets the Dolphins in Week 4, but he's priced all the way up to $7,800 on DraftKings.
  
• Kyler Murray is still reasonably priced ($7,000) on DK and draws Carolina's defense.
• Deshaun Watson ($6,600) is who projects as the best cash game option at first look. His string of difficult matchups comes to an end with a great draw against Minnesota in Week 4.
• Joe Burrow ($6,300) remains underpriced and faces the Jaguars.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick is just $5,400 and will be playing from behind against a Seahawks defense that has allowed tons of production to opposing passers thus far.

Week 4 QB Rankings:

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Russell Wilson
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Dak Prescott
5. Josh Allen
6. Deshaun Watson
7. Kyler Murray
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matthew Stafford
11. Joe Burrow
12. Ryan Fitzpatrick
13. Gardner Minshew
14. Drew Brees
15. Jared Goff
16. Baker Mayfield
17. Kirk Cousins
18. Nick Mullens
19. Tom Brady
20. Teddy Bridgewater
21. Carson Wentz
22. Justin Herbert
23. Daniel Jones
24. Derek Carr
25. Philip Rivers
26. Nick Foles
27. Brian Hoyer
28. Sam Darnold
29. Brett Rypien
30. Dwayne Haskins

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