Week 4 College Football odds, predictions: Parlay picks, best bets for SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 for the weekend of September 24th, 2022

Fifteen years ago, in the fall of 2007, college football experienced an extraordinary level of chaos that is unlikely to be repeated often again in our lifetimes. Seven times in the final nine weeks did the No. 2 ranked team lose. Teams ranked in the top five of the AP Poll lost 13 times to unranked opponents. An unranked or lower-ranked opponent defeated the higher ranked team 59 times during the season. It was like a weekly soap opera that you couldn't turn off. Ironically, the current college football darlings, Appalachian State, started the chaos in '07 with a seismic upset of Michigan in Week 1. 

While I'd like to think that maybe we'll see something comparable in 2022 considering the upsets on September 10th, it's just not happening. Through one third of the season, unfortunately, the top three of this year's college football standings seem all too predictable (odds to make the playoff from Caesers Sportsbook):

1. Georgia (-450): This roster might be even better than last year's championship team. Their next/only test before the College Football Playoff will be against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
   
   
2. Alabama (-450): While the Texas game showed some cracks in the armor, it's still quite likely they won't lose a regular season game. And if they do, they'll probably find a way to beat Georgia like last year and still make the CFP.
   
   
3. Ohio State (-280): With the exception of a road trip to Penn State and hosting Michigan the Saturday after Thanksgiving, their schedule is weak. Considering how good their offense is, it's hard to see them not being among the final four teams when it's all said and done.

If I were to play oddsmaker, I'd say the chance of all three of these teams making the College Football Playoff are -150. For two out of three, I'd put the odds at -300. It just seems too easy. The fourth and final spot looks to be where the fun begins. As a betting man, here's how I'd rank the contenders as of today:

1. USC (+300): They just look so dominant. Who outside of Utah in the Pac-12 can challenge them?
   
   
2. Michigan (+375): Their schedule has to be one of the easiest in the nation outside of the Ohio State trip. Lose by a touchdown or less to the Buckeyes, and they might be in if Alabama loses once in the regular season and to Georgia in the SEC title game.
   
   
3. Clemson (+190): The ACC isn't all that strong and I'm still not buying into the Clemson hype. I think they'll lose one or two games and that won't be enough to get them in over other one loss teams. 
   
   
4. Oklahoma (+450): The victory over Nebraska was the definition of domination. The Sooners look as crisp as they were under Lincoln Riley but I'd still be surprised if they weren't tripped up once or twice in Big 12 play.
   
   
5. The field: Including Oklahoma State, Utah, and NC State. I don't think any of them could survive another loss, especially Utah who already has one vs. Florida. Sorry Kentucky and Tennessee fans - your schedules in the SEC East are just too difficult.
   

In terms of my picks, Week 3 was forgettable. It amounted to a 6-11 record and still no conference parlays hit. With some sneaky matchups on the horizon this weekend, including the true beginning of conference play, it might be another weekend full of surprises. I'm playing my share of Unders this week. They may not be fun, but they usually are profitable.

Once again, the purpose of this column each week is to find the best parlay bets by conference. I'll try to keep each wager between two and four picks, but the combined parlay of my favorite picks at the bottom of the column each week will be our lottery ticket. Hit one of those all season and it should get us a guaranteed season profit.

All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

Make sure to check out Wildcat Country, my Arizona Wildcats podcast with co-host Shane Dale! New episodes out weekly.

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SEC parlay picks

Kent State / Georgia Under 62
Florida +10.5 at Tennessee
Arkansas / Texas A&M Under 48.5
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

It was a rough one in the SEC last week. I felt really good about it at the start... not so much in the end. The backdoor South Carolina touchdown to kill the Under set the tone for the day. Poor Kent State football players. Their non-conference schedule this season has been Washington, Oklahoma, and now Georgia on the road. That's beyond brutal. The Bulldogs should get a big lead and put in the fifth-stringers yet again. I have a hard time seeing Kent State scoring more than a touchdown considering they only mustered a field goal against Oklahoma. In the featured College Gameday matchup, the Gators have won the last five meetings against the Volunteers, including a 38-14 thrashing last season. Tennessee's offense is really fun to watch but the Gators should absolutely make a game of it. This game has sneaky upset potential as well, especially if Florida's Anthony Richardson can avoid turnovers (four interceptions in the last two weeks). I wanted to pick a side in Arkansas-Texas A&M but kept waffling. Instead I'll go with the Under as I don't see either team coming close to 27 points. The A&M defense is too good and their offense is too bad. Last year's final, for comparison's sake, was 20-10 Razorbacks.

Game Record: 0-3 last week, 3-6 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 3 overall (-4 units)

BIG TEN parlay picks

Michigan -16.5 vs. Maryland
Indiana +16.5 at Cincinnati
Wisconsin / Ohio State Under 57
Parlay Odds: +596 (1.5 units)

Since Jim Harbaugh took over at Michigan in 2015, the Wolverines are 6-0 vs. the Terrapins with an average margin of victory of nearly 34 points a game. I know the Terps are better this season but the Wolverines at home are on another level. Last year an elite Cincinnati team beat Indiana 38-24 in Bloomington. Now a worse Cinci team is favored by more over a seemingly better Hoosiers team. The Bearcats should win easily but that's a lot of points! Both Wisconsin and Ohio State scored a ton of points in blowout wins last week. The last six regular season matchups between the two teams have fallen under this total and I can't see OSU scoring more than 35 on the stout Badgers' defense. 

Game Record: 1-3 last week, 4-6 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 3 overall (-3.5 units)

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ACC parlay picks

Clemson / Wake Forest Over 55.5
Middle Tennessee / Miami Over 51.5
North Carolina -1.5 vs. Notre Dame
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

Even last year's pathetic Tigers offense produced 48 points vs. Wake Forest. This year's over/under feels about 10 points too low. The Hurricanes failed to find the end zone in last week's poor effort vs. Texas A&M. I'm betting they score at least five times -- if not more -- against a Middle Tennessee team that lost 41-7 to James Madison in their Week 1 game. North Carolina's offense is awesome. Their defense... well not so much. Notre Dame's offense stinks and I just don't see the Fighting Irish as much more than a .500 team this season. Give me the fighting Mack Browns at home. 

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 5-4 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 3 overall (-3.5 units)

BIG 12 parlay picks

Kansas -7.5 vs. Duke
TCU -2 at SMU
Kansas State / Oklahoma Under 53
Parlay Odds: +596 (1 unit)

I'm probably going to regret picking Kansas to cover against Duke, in football or basketball, but the Jayhawks have been flat-out incredible on offense this season. Last week's 48-30 demolition of Houston on the road was enough for me to pick the Jayhawks to cover this spread and win the game by double digits. Moreover, the Jayhawks are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games dating back to 2021. Coach Lance Leipold deserves a very high profile job after this quick rebuild in Lawrence. Sonny Dykes left SMU to coach TCU. He knows his former team well and probably wants this win more than anyone. I think his team wins and covers the small spread. New Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez mustered only 16 points against Oklahoma's defense last year while playing at Nebraska. The Sooners' defense is much improved under coach Brent Venables this season and Martinez's team only scored a meager 10 points last Saturday vs. Tulane. I expect the Wildcats to slow down Oklahoma's potent attack and will confidently play the Under in this matchup.

Game Record: 1-2 last week, 6-4 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 3 overall (-3 units)

PAC-12 parlay picks

Washington State +6.5 vs. Oregon
USC -6.5 at Oregon State
Stanford / Washington Under 63.5
Parlay Odds: +568 (1 unit)

Last week I debated between UCLA -15.5 vs. South Alabama and Eastern Michigan +20 at Arizona State. I chose incorrectly and therefore cost myself the weekly parlay. College football lines can be strange. This Oregon-Washington State one is that way for me too. The Cougars beat then-No. 19 Wisconsin on the road and have looked dominant in their other two games. Yet they're getting nearly a touchdown to the Ducks, who were only 3.5 point favorites at home against BYU last week? I'm not calling a winner but this will be a one-possession game either way. 

This should be a tricky game for the Trojans at night, on the road in Corvallis against the undefeated and pesky Beavers. Oregon State didn't lose at home last season and while the line seems almost too inviting to be true, I think the Trojans are that good and will continue their undefeated (straight up and against the spread) streak this weekend. The Huskies offense has been incredibly dynamic with new coach Kalen DeBoer and his transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. But the last ten meetings between these teams have fallen below the 63.5 over/under for this weekend's game. I'll go out on a limb and say history repeats itself in what should be a big UW win. Just a side note: I'm thrilled that my Arizona Wildcats are 2-1 and I came VERY close to picking them in this column. I do think they'll beat Cal on the road. But I'll put my rooting interests aside for a week to get a much-needed parlay win.

Game Record: 3-1 last week, 4-6 overall
Conference Parlay Record: 0 of 3 overall (-4 units)

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Week 4 College Football parlay picks

Florida +10.5 at Tennessee
Arkansas / Texas A&M Under 48.5
Michigan -16.5 vs. Maryland
Wisconsin / Ohio State Under 57
Clemson / Wake Forest Over 55.5
TCU -2 at SMU
USC -6.5 at Oregon State
Stanford / Washington Under 63.5

Parlay Odds: +16844 (0.5 units)
Weekly Parlay Record: 0 of 3 overall (-1.5 units)

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