The Lions and Jaguars have been perennial punching bags in the NFL, with both finishing last place in their respective divisions in each of the last four seasons. The Jaguars' division title in 2017 was their first since 1999, while the Lions have never won the NFC North, as their last division title came back in 1993 when they played in the five-team NFC Central. That streak isn't going to end this year for Detroit, though both teams appear to be trending upward to the extent that you can argue both enter the week playing like top-10 teams. In fact, I have both at 1.5 points above average in my power ratings, which ties them with the Chargers for the eighth spot in the league heading into Week 16.

Now, this doesn't mean we should consider the Lions and Jaguars to be top-10 teams over the course of the season, nor will they continue to keep top-10 status as other teams get healthier. The Ravens, for example, should leap both teams once Lamar Jackson is back under center. But both the Jaguars and particularly the Lions are playing like top-tier teams over at least the last month. Jacksonville's only loss over the last four weeks came at the hands of the Lions, and the Jaguars just handled the Titans on the road before dropping 40 points and 503 yards on the Cowboys in an upset win. The Lions have won six of their last seven games, only losing to the Bills by three points on Thanksgiving. It's hard to argue the teams close behind them in my power ratings like the Vikings and Jets are playing better right now.

One team that doesn't rank below the Lions or Jets despite potentially losing its starting quarterback this week is the Eagles, with MVP candidate Jalen Hurts dealing with a shoulder injury that clouds his status for not just this week, but the rest of the regular season. But the Eagles have an incredible supporting cast around Hurts, with a veteran offensive line and excellent passing-game weapons to help Gardner Minshew succeed, plus one of the better defenses in the league. As such, I couldn't downgrade them past the 49ers, who are in a similar situation, in my power ratings.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Packers are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Vikings are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Chargers may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Patriots are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Chargers should be favored by two points against the Packers on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks and again after 12 weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated.

I've dived into each Week 16 game and evaluated my Week 16 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 16? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 16 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!