Week 15 NFL power ratings: How to value all 32 teams, including Chargers without Justin Herbert, for ATS picks
Last week we talked about the adjustment for the Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence unlikely to play on Sunday due to a high ankle sprain. But somehow he did make it out there despite what's typically a multi-week injury, as did Derek Carr following a host of injuries in his game that included a concussion.
We're unlikely to be as lucky this week. For starters, C.J. Stroud also suffered what appeared to be a concussion in the same vein as Tua Tagovailoa's scary injuries from last year due to the force with which the back of his head hit the ground. I'd be surprised if he's cleared to play this week, considering how much blowback the Dolphins received last year with their handling of the Tagovailoa situation.
Then we have Justin Herbert, who fractured his right index finger and couldn't finish his team's blowout loss to the Broncos. He's not expected to be ready for the quick turnaround to a Thursday matchup with the Raiders this week and at this point could be shut down for the season with the Chargers not going anywhere. His absence brings up the question of what we do with the Chargers in the betting market now.
I had the Chargers as slightly below average heading into last week, and I have the drop from Herbert to backup Easton Stick as one of the biggest in the league considering how good Herbert is when he's dealing. But it's been a while since we've seen that version of Herbert, and he had managed just one touchdown drive in two games heading into the Denver matchup, then he didn't reach the end zone against the Broncos before exiting.
After initially moving the Chargers down seven points, which was my expectation with a Herbert injury before it turned from hypothetical to reality, I moved them down six points. That's enough to put them tied with the Panthers in my power ratings; I'd take the Panthers defense with how they're playing at this time, but I'm still allowing for the possibility that Stick has some untapped potential after what we've seen with Jake Browning, and even at times with depth quarterbacks like Tyson Bagent or Tommy DeVito. At that rating, I believe the line of Raiders -3, which is what's available in the betting market, makes sense.
If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. You can also check out SportsLine on Sunday afternoons as I give my initial power ratings adjustments for each team to get ahead of the market openers before diving in fully for this Tuesday feature. Otherwise, we'll jump right in.
Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 15? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 15 power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!
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