All season, I've had the Bills and Chiefs jockeying for the top spot in my power ratings. While I was optimistic about the Eagles, I started them at just three points above average, but they quickly established themselves as the third-best team behind my top two, and then as belonging in that top tier. This week, for the first time all season, I have them at No. 1.

That's not to say the Eagles are a perfect team. I don't think their numbers defending the run are just a product of Jordan Davis' injury a few weeks back, for example. But they seem to be a more complete team than either the Bills or Chiefs right now, especially now that the offense is back to piling up yardage. If you made them a pick 'em in the Super Bowl against either the Bills or Chiefs right now, I'd have to take Philadelphia.

Buffalo has overcome the loss of Von Miller so far, but the Bills also haven't faced the toughest of offenses without him. Josh Allen has also committed 15 turnovers on the season and essentially fallen out of the MVP race. The Chiefs have battled their own turnover issues, and Patrick Mahomes throwing pick after pick to let the Broncos back in the game made it clear they should come out of the top spot of my power ratings.

What are power ratings? Well, anyone who has followed football (or really any sport) for any length of time has encountered a power rankings list that projects teams from best to worst. Where power ratings for NFL betting differs is that you're affixing a point total to each team that tells you how much better or worse it is from an average team. For example, if you think the Browns are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Vikings are a little bit better, you might make them a +1. The Chargers may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Giants are a -1 or -2 team (or even worse).

After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Chargers should be favored by two points against the Browns on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years, and you can find my breakdown of this year's home-field advantage ratings here. I updated the HFA numbers of a few teams in my weekly workbook after six weeks and again after 12 weeks with a better understanding of which teams are good and bad, and which fan bases are likely to be more engaged than previously anticipated.

I've dived into each Week 15 game and evaluated my Week 15 power ratings to see what needed to be adjusted. I've also shared analysis of the most extreme differences between my projected lines and the market, as well as done the math to project the spread of every game based on my power ratings.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 15? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 15 power ratings from the expert who's 445-378-24 on ATS picks from 2017-21, returning $2,542 to $100 players!