The Dallas Mavericks host the Golden State Warriors for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Dallas is favored by one point at Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is set at 215.5 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before making any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, you NEED to check out the NBA predictions from SportsLine expert Matt Severance.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 88-36 his last 124 NBA money line picks, returning over $2,800 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is WAY UP.

The expert knows Golden State is dominating the series. The Warriors are out-scoring the Mavericks by more than 14 points per 100 possessions, and Golden State is giving up only 1.06 points per possession to Dallas. The Warriors are crushing the glass on both ends, and the Mavericks are shooting only 41 percent. Golden State is putting up more than 1.2 points per possession and averaging 28.3 assists per contest.

He is also aware that the Mavericks have clear strengths. Dallas is committing only 10.5 turnovers per game in the playoffs, and the Mavericks are shooting 37.3 percent from 3-point range. The Mavericks also have a dynamic leading scorer in Luka Doncic, who is averaging 32.1 points per game in the playoffs. Doncic is also putting up 34.0 points per game in the series and making 41.4 percent of his 3-point attempts.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Mavericks vs. Warriors. We can tell you he is leaning under the total, and he's found a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side! You ABSOLUTELY need to see what he has to say before locking in any NBA picks.

Who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And what critical x-factor makes one side a must-back? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you should be all over Tuesday, all from the expert on a roll on NBA picks!