Von Miller out for season: Bills' odds to win Super Bowl 57 drop nearly 6 percent via SportsLine Projection Model
The Buffalo Bills remain the +380 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to win their first-ever Super Bowl in February, but the SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded the Bills' chances by nearly 6% with today's news that star pass-rusher, seven-time All-Pro and future Hall-of-Famer Von Miller will not be able to return late in the regular season or for the playoffs because of his knee injury.
The Super Bowl 50 MVP suffered the injury on Thanksgiving at the end of the first half of the team's win against Detroit. A Lions offensive lineman hit his leg from the side on a pass play in the first half, and the leg was rolled up on as the play ended. Miller was put on injured reserve, but the hope was that he would miss only the required four games on IR. Miller had even said on his podcast last week that he hoped to return before this Sunday's game against the Jets.
However, exploratory surgery on Tuesday found an ACL issue, which had to be repaired. Coach Sean McDermott announced the news today. Miller had started every game this season prior to Week 13 and leads the team with eight sacks and 38 pressures.
"I'm excited for the opportunity to show my teammates how tough I am, how hard I work and how important that this means to me," he said in a video posted on Twitter from his hospital bed. "Don't blink! I'll be back."
It takes a rare defensive injury for sportsbooks to change Super Bowl odds – think someone like the Cowboys' Micah Parsons, Steelers' TJ Watt or Rams' Aaron Donald, although neither Pittsburgh or Los Angeles is winning a Super Bowl this year.
Buffalo didn't miss Miller too much in the 24-10 win at New England in Week 13. The Bills pressured Mac Jones on 39.5% of his dropbacks -- the second-highest of rate of his career. The returns of Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa from injury were big factors there.
The SportsLine Projection Model drops Buffalo's chances of winning the AFC – it currently is the top seed – from 39.1% to 32.7% and to win Super Bowl 57 from 24.8% to 19.0%, which equates to a moneyline price of about +425.Â
| BUFFALOÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | WINÂ Â Â | WIN%Â Â Â | DIVISIONÂ Â | PLAYOFFÂ Â | CONF Â | CHAMP |
| Miller Back Jan 2 | 12.6 | 74.1% | 84.2% | 99.7% | 39.1% | 24.8% |
| Out for Season | 12.5 | 73.5% | 82.3% | 99.5% | 32.7% | 19.0% |
| Difference | -0.1 | -0.6% | -1.9% | -0.2% | -6.4% | -5.8% |
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