UFC 292 odds, trends: Lopsided betting action on Sean O'Malley to upset Aljamain Sterling for bantamweight title Saturday

UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling has lost just once in the octagon since April 2017 and enters Saturday's UFC 292 main event at TD Garden in Boston on a nine-fight winning streak. He's also ranked as the No. 6 pound-for-pound fighter in the organization. Yet it's No. 2 contender Sean O'Malley who is taking a massive amount of action for their title bout as a fairly heavy underdog. Click here for UFC 292 expert picks.

At BetMGM, O'Malley opened as a +220 dog but is down to +200 after taking a whopping 89% of the bets and 74% of the money. Sterling has moved from -270 to -250.

Granted, sizable underdogs often take plenty of action in title fights like this because they pay out so well, but this is a surprising lean because Sterling (23-3) isn't just any champion -- some think he may be the GOAT of the division. His nine-fight winning streak is the longest in UFC bantamweight history and the third-longest active win streak under that umbrella.

The 34-year-old already has three successful title defenses against some of the legends of the division in Petr Yan (a rematch after Sterling originally won the belt vs. Yan), TJ Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo. "Funk Master" would tie the all-time UFC bantamweight record for title wins of five (held by Dillashaw) if he defeats O'Malley. Sterling's three career losses came to Marlon Moraes, Raphael Assuncao and Bryan Caraway, who have cumulative .693 winning percentage at 73-32-1.

Sterling has said that no matter what happens Saturday, he plans to move up to featherweight (145 pounds). Alexander Volkanovski holds the division's belt and is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

O'Malley (16-1, 1 NC) might be the division's next big thing with nine first-round finishes. His lone loss came to Marlon Vera in August 2020, and he was unranked as a bantamweight as recently as the beginning of 2021. "Sugar" has the best significant strike percentage (60.9%), highest strikes per minute (7.47) and highest strike differential (4.04) in UFC bantamweight history (minimum five fights).

Not only is the 5-foot-11 O'Malley six years younger than Sterling, but also four inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. His seven fight night bonuses are second all-time in UFC bantamweight history. One possible red flag: O'Malley has eight wins since joining the UFC. Seven of those opposing fighters are no longer fighting for the company, and they've combine for a 1-8 record in the UFC since fighting O'Malley.

If O'Malley wins Saturday, he is expected to fight No. 1 contender Merab Dvalishili next. Dvalishili and Sterling never fought because they are friends and train together.

In the co-main event, women's strawweight champion Zhang Weili is a -350 favorite over Amanda Lemos (+260) in their title bout, with the champ getting 75% of the the handle. Lemos is taking 65% of the bets.

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