Thunder vs. Pelicans NBA play-in tournament props, odds, trends: New Orleans taking heavy spread action, bettors expect big night from Jonas Valanciunas

This is only the third year of the NBA's play-in tournament, but the No. 9 seed is 4-0 straight up against the No. 10 seed. The second 9 vs 10 game Wednesday night is from the Western Conference as New Orleans hosts Oklahoma City, with the winner visiting Minnesota on Friday for the eighth and final spot in the West playoffs. The Pelicans are -5.5 at BetMGM and taking heavy action – as is center Jonas Valanciunas on a combo prop. Click here for model picks.

It's the first time in the play-in tournament for the Thunder, who were expected to again be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season but finished with 40 wins, their most since 2019-20 -- which was the last time OKC made the playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander became one of the NBA's best players this season -- he averaged 31.4 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the league. And there was no better rookie after the All-Star break than No. 12 overall pick Jalen Williams.

Remember, the Thunder played all season without Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft, due to injury. They could be really good next season with the Holmgren addition. Should OKC lose here and then win the draft lottery at longshot odds to get Victor Wembanyama, the Thunder could immediately become title contenders.

New Orleans was the No. 9 seed in last year's Western Conference play-in tournament, beat No. 10 San Antonio in the first game and then knocked off the No. 8 LA Clippers to reach the playoffs. Zion Williamson remains unavailable for the Pelicans. The former Duke star says he's physically healthy but not mentally there yet. He could potentially play at some point in Round 1 against Denver, should New Orleans get that far.

As of this writing, 74% of the bets and 87% of the handle are on the Pelicans against the spread tonight. The total has dropped from an open of 231.5 to 226.5 with 75% of the bets and 85% of the money on the Under. OKC is +180 on the  moneyline and taking 71% of the bets and 59% of the money.

Valanciunas is taking heavy action on Over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists at -120. He averaged 14.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists this season and ranked fifth in the NBA with 43 double-doubles. In four games against OKC, he averaged only 11.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists. New Orleans won three of the four matchups.

Other popular props: The Thunder's Williams Under 15.5 points at -105, and Gilgeous-Alexander Under 0.5 made 3-pointers at +160. Williams averaged 14.1 PPG overall, but that rate rose 18.6 since the All-Star break. He was at 14.5 PPG vs. New Orleans. Gilgeouis-Alexander is a rare guard who doesn't live and die behind the 3-point arc -- he averaged 0.9 makes per game. 

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