The No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks link up in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday at 9:30 p.m. ET. The Mavericks defeated the Thunder 105-101 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series edge. SportsLine consensus lists Mavericks as the 1-point favorite, while the over/under for total points scored is 215 (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Thunder vs. Mavericks picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Dallas forward P.J. Washington has been a difference-maker for this club. Washington is on fire from beyond the arc while owning the bounce to soar high above the rim. The former Kentucky standout averages 14.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Washington had 27 points and six rebounds in his last outing.

The model also knows Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a smooth scorer. Gilgeous-Alexander has a superb offensive gameplan with a reliable mid-range attack. He's putting up 28.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. The 25-year-old dropped 31-plus points in two straight outings.

The model has simulated Thunder vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value!

Who wins Thunder vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread is the better value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 94-61 roll on top-rated NBA picks!