Texans vs. Titans NFL Week 15 odds, props: Derrick Henry been historically good against Houston, but set at only 66.5 rushing yards Sunday

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has won two rushing titles in his career. The 2020 NFL Offensive Player of the Year currently sits third in the NFL with 875 yards, 302 behind leader Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers. Thus, it's very unlikely that Henry catches McCaffrey, but we can't rule it out completely because Henry still has two games left against the Houston Texans, a team he has terrorized on the ground over the course of his career. Yet Henry is set at only over/under 66.5 rushing yards for Sunday with Houston visiting Tennessee. The Titans, who will wear Houston Oilers throwbacks, are -3 on the SportsLine consensus because Texans rising star quarterback C.J. Stroud is out. 

McCaffrey is a huge -550 favorite at DraftKings to win his first rushing title, and he should be a massive favorite with a 253-yard lead over second-place Raheem Mostert of Miami. Almost impossibly, the Niners haven't had a rushing champion since Joe Perry won his second in a row way back in 1954. Keep in mind, though, that McCaffrey could take a seat Week 18 if the Niners are locked into their playoff seed, which is quite possible.

Henry, who is +1500 for the rushing title, has a whopping four career games with at least 200 rushing yards and two rushing scores against Houston, more than any other player in NFL history has in their entire career against the league. LaDainian Tomlinson, Barry Sanders and Jim Brown have three each such games against the entire NFL. Henry has two more against other teams for a total of six.

For his career, Henry is averaging 115.0 yards per game vs. Houston. That's the fourth-highest rushing average by a back against any team with a minimum of 10 games played.  

The last time the Titans and Texans faced off was in Week 16 last season in Nashville. Henry had 23 carries for 126 yards and a score. So why such a low number this time? Henry is averaging a career-low 4.1 yards per carry, and Houston is allowing the second fewest yards per rush at 3.6 per game. In addition, the Titans have been incorporating rookie back Tyjae Spears and he's set at O/U 24.5 rushing yards. With Henry a free-agent-to-be this winter, Spears might take over in 2024 for Tennessee.

At 5-8, the Titans have not been officially eliminated from playoff contention, but it may come Sunday. They're coming off one of the most unlikely wins in league history, as they trailed 27-13 at Miami on Monday night with three minutes left and won 28-27. NFL teams had lost 642 straight games down at least 14 points in the final three minutes.

We will not get an all-rookie QB matchup of Houston's Stroud and Tennessee's Will Levis, as Stroud was officially ruled out today after not practicing yet again. The runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite is in the concussion protocol. The Texans are 7-6 and eighth in the AFC, so a loss would be crushing as divisional losses are penalized the most. Houston is +125 to make the playoffs and -150 to miss. The remaining schedule is pretty manageable: vs. Cleveland, vs. Tennessee, at Indianapolis.

Davis Mills should start in Stroud's place Sunday but won't have No. 1 WR Nico Collins (60/1004/6) due to a calf injury. The 2021 third-round pick Mills is 5-19-1 as a starter with 33 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. He last started Week 18 of last season in Indianapolis and led a 32-31 upset victory that gave Chicago the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft and dropped Houston to second, although that worked out quite well with Stroud still there at No. 2.

The Texans also traded with Arizona to get the No. 3 overall pick and selected Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson, but he's in doubt for Sunday with a high-ankle sprain. Anderson is +700 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ Essential. Sync your account right here.