Texans vs. Colts NFL Week 18 odds, trends: Bettors in on C.J. Stroud, Houston in Saturday matchup with postseason spot at stake

The Saturday night NFL Week 18 matchup is about as important as it gets as the winner between the Texans and Colts in Indianapolis is in the playoffs – and might claim the AFC South title – while the loser's season is finished. It's the 11th winner-take-all game in the final week of the regular season since 2000 and the first in Texans history. They are -1 on the SportsLine consensus and taking monster action. Click here for model picks.

Per DraftKings, Houston is taking the most ATS handle on the board at nearly 85% of the money and is No. 2 in tickets sold (behind Tampa Bay -4.5) at 72% -- and that's rising. Houston also is taking the fourth-most money line action of any Week 18 club at -120. FanDuel and BetMGM have essentially the same numbers.

All of this action is coming in despite the Texans dealing with a rash of injuries. Wide receiver Noah Brown (33 catches, 567 yards, two touchdowns) is out, and fellow WR Robert Woods is iffy. Remember, the team lost stellar rookie wideout Tank Dell for the season a few weeks ago. Defensive end Jonathan Greenard is out, and he leads the club with 12.5 sacks. Second on the team in sacks with seven is rookie No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson Jr., a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but he's questionable. So are defensive tackles Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins and Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil.

We know quarterback and Offensive Rookie of the Year lock C.J. Stroud will play, and he looks to become the third rookie QB to start a playoff game after being selected within first two picks in the common draft era (since 1967) along with Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III (both in 2012). RGIII won OROY that season as the No. 2 overall pick like Stroud. The Texans can become the fifth team all-time to make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback and head coach (DeMeco Ryans) duo with a minimum of 10 games started by the QB.

Indianapolis is in much better shape. Cornerback Kenny Moore is set to play after missing last week and so is running back Zack Moss, who has been out since Dec. 16. The Colts have one of the better 1-2 punches at tailback in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor and Moss, but they have barely been healthy at the same time this season. The Colts are 6-2 since a 3-5 start and have allowed 21.4 points per game in that stretch compared to an NFL-high 28.6 PPG prior.

Both teams can win the AFC South if the Jaguars lose at the Titans on Sunday, although Jacksonville is -3.5. That result might depend on the status Jags QB Trevor Lawrence, who is questionable after missing Week 17. If Jacksonville takes the division, the Texans-Colts winner would be the No. 6 seed if Buffalo wins Sunday night in Miami for the AFC East title or the No. 7 seed if the Dolphins win.

How unusual is this particular matchup? Entering Week 18, they are the only two teams with at least five more wins than last season. The Texans had the longest odds (tied with Arizona) to win the Super Bowl at +20000 entering the season, and the Colts had the third-longest at +125000. 

Indianapolis won 31-20 at Houston in Week 2 when no one had any clue how good Stroud would be, but the former Ohio State star gave us a preview by throwing for 384 yards and two scores. Indy's starting QB then was rookie Anthony Richardson, taken two spots after Stroud at No. 4, and he rushed for two scores before leaving with a concussion. Gardner Minshew was excellent in relief, going 19-for-23 for 171 yards and a TD. Minshew is now the starter with Richardson out for the season due to another injury.

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