Steelers vs. Seahawks NFL Week 17 odds, props: Mike Tomlin can extend record streak; Mason Rudolph to start in crucial game for playoff hopes

There's serious playoff implications at play on Sunday afternoon when the Pittsburgh Steelers, who sit ninth in the AFC, visit the Seattle Seahawks, who are seventh in the NFC, in a matchup of Super Bowl-winning and likely Hall of Fame coaches in Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll. Should the Steelers win, it would guarantee a 17th straight non-losing season for Tomlin, extending his NFL record to begin a coaching career. His team is +3.5 on the SportsLine consensus and will start third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph for a second straight week.

The SportsLine Projection Model gives Pittsburgh (8-7) a 14.1% shot of earning a playoff spot. DraftKings gives the team odds of +475, which equates to a 17.4% chance, with the Steelers going home early at -800. Rather interestingly, the Steelers likely will be huge fans of their bitter rivals, the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens, on Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins. Why? If the Ravens win, they'll clinch the AFC's top seed and surely will rest MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and other starters in Week 18 when they host Pittsburgh.

Needless to say, if the Steelers lose in Seattle they would need that game to keep Tomlin's streak alive and absolutely would have to win it for any playoff chance. Pittsburgh would be eliminated in Week 17 with a loss to Seattle and the following:

• Buffalo Bills win over the New England Patriots AND
• Indianapolis Colts win over the Las Vegas Raiders AND
• Los Angeles Chargers win over the Denver Broncos AND
• Jacksonville Jaguars win over the Carolina Panthers OR
• Houston Texans win over the Tennessee Titans

Buffalo, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston are all solid home favorites Sunday. The Chargers at least won't face Russell Wilson in Denver.

The Steelers have not been eliminated before the final game of the regular season since 2012, the only time it happened under Tomlin. They've only played in three games this century in which they've been eliminated before kickoff. A win would make this Pittsburgh's 20th straight season without a losing record, one shy of the record of 21 in a row by Dallas from 1965-85.

Overall, Tomlin's current streak of non-losing seasons trails only Tom Landy (21 from 1965-85) and Bill Belichick (19 from 2001-19) and is tied with George Halas (16 from 1933-42 and 1946-51). We've touched previously on the possibility that this could be Tomlin's last season in Pittsburgh, but the team wants to keep him and extend his contract that ends after 2024. Tomlin himself might be ready for something different, however. 

Rudolph has not been officially named the starter yet, but Kenny Pickett hasn't been able to practice in full since suffering his concussion, which makes it all but certain Rudolph will get the ball. Most Steelers fans were calling for Rudolph even when Pickett was healthy, and the former Oklahoma State star played very well in last Sunday's season-saving 34-11 rout of Cincinnati to snap a three-game Pittsburgh losing streak. Rudolph was 17-for-27 for 290 yards and two long touchdown passes to George Pickens. He didn't the ball over and took just one sack.

For Sunday, Rudolph is set at over/under 214.5 yards, 1.5 TDs and 0.5 picks. Rudolph is +2800 to throw for the most yards of any QB in Sunday's 14 games. 

Pickens had the game of his young career with four catches for 195 yards and those two scores. He joined Miami's Tyreek Hill as the players this season with multiple touchdown receptions of 60-plus yards in the same game. Pickens' average of 48.8 yards per reception was the third-highest mark by a player since the 1970 league merger with at least four catches. Pickens is set at O/U 49.5 yards Sunday with a long of 21.5. He is +6500 to have the most receiving yards of any NFL player Sunday.

The SportsLine Projection Model gives Seattle (8-7) a 70.1% shot of making the playoffs, with DK listing Yes at -330 (76.7%) and No at +235. The Seahawks might still be fine even with a loss here because they close at tanking Arizona.

Carroll's team has won back-to-back games with touchdowns in the final two minutes (to win by 20-17 scores) and is the third NFL club since 1970 with four game-winning touchdowns in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime in a season, joining the 2004 Jaguars (four) and Carroll's 2012 Seahawks (four). Since becoming the Seattle starter in 2022, QB Geno Smith has orchestrated seven game-winning drives.

Through 16 weeks, there are still 24 teams still in Super Bowl contention, the second most with two weeks to play since 2004 when 26 teams were alive (2022, 2021, 2006 also with 24). 

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