Steelers 2023 AFC North odds: Kenny Pickett & Co. taking heaviest action to win division after perfect preseason

Few teams looked as good this preseason as the Pittsburgh Steelers as they were one of three teams to finish the slate unbeaten. Only two teams have gone unbeaten in an exhibition schedule and won the Super Bowl in the same season, the most recent being 2013 Seattle Seahawks. It remains to be seen if Kenny Pickett can lead the Steelers to Super Bowl 58, but they are taking a lot of money to win the AFC North.

Pittsburgh had been +550 at BetMGM to win the North for the first time in three years but is down to +450 (still the longshot) thanks to taking 33% of the bets, the most of any club, to win the division. In fact, the Steelers are taking the third-most bets of any team to win its division this year, behind Detroit at +135 and Chicago at +450, both in the NFC North.

The Steelers have never finished with a losing record under coach Mike Tomlin but have missed the playoffs in three of the past five seasons. They are +135 to make it this winter and only Denver at +200 is taking more action to play in the postseason. Rather strangely, though, the Steelers also are taking among the most action to miss the playoffs at -160. To win Super Bowl 58, Pittsburgh has risen from +5000 to +6000, which is a little stranger. The Steelers have an over/inder win total of 8.5, with 83% of the action on the Over. Only Tennessee and Kansas City are taking heavier Over action.

Pickett, the only first-round quarterback in the 2022 draft, really improved his game in the back half of last season as Pittsburgh closed on a 6-1 kick to nearly earn a wild card spot. The former University of Pittsburgh star looked great this preseason. He played two drives in each of Pittsburgh's three games and completed 13 of 15 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns.

Pro Football Focus gave Pickett a preseason grade of 94.7 and had him as the starter on its all-preseason team. Pickett's average depth of target grew from 8.0 yards last regular season to 10.6 during the preseason as he got more comfortable with excellent wideouts Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Pickett's big-time throw percentage of 20% ranked first in the preseason among QBs who played in more than one game. By comparison, Buffalo's Josh Allen led the NFL last season with 44 big-time throws across 567 attempts (7.4%).

"The leadership things, the communication things, the bringing-people-together things," Tomlin said of Pickett's improvement. "That is significant. It's not play related, but it is. He is the catalyst for that unit, he controls the pace and the tenor of that unit, and I think if he's comfortable that unit is comfortable, and I think that's been the biggest difference."

Here are Pickett's season props available at DraftKings:

• To win NFL MVP: +5000
• To win NFL Offensive Player of the Year: +10000
• To lead the NFL in passing yards: +6000
• To leads the NFL in passing TDs: +8000
• To lead the NFL in interceptions: +2800
• Over/Under 3300.5 passing yards: Over -120 favorite
• Over/Under 18.5 passing TDs: Under -120 favorite
• To throw for at least 275 yards in eight games: +350
• To throw for at least 400 yards in two games: +380
• To throw for at least 500 yards in any game: +1200

Last year, Pickett saw action 13 games and completed 63% of his passes for 2,404 yards, seven TDs and nine picks for a rating of 76.7 that was among the NFL's worst. His career high in yardage was 327 in a 38-3 loss in Buffalo last October. That was the only game in which Pickett topped 275 yards. The franchise single-game yardage record is 522 by Ben Roethlisberger (Oct. 26, 2014, vs. the Colts).

For Week 1, the Steelers are +2.5 at home against a stellar 49ers defense, but which might be missing 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and sack king Nick Bosa as he's holding out. The SportsLine Projection Model has Pickett finishing 22-of-34 for 215 yards, 0.95 TDs and 0.91 INTs.

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