SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Dodgers leading baseball with 40 wins

Last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers won 106 regular-season games, the most by any National League team in 33 years, and claimed their incredible seventh straight NL West Division title – although the franchise again came up short of its first World Series title since 1988. The 2020 Dodgers look potentially better on paper in the coronavirus-shortened 60-game season, and the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts them with a league-high 39.7 victories – that equates to 107 wins over a usual 162 games.

Most sportsbooks are listing the Dodgers with an Over-Under total of 37 wins, with William Hill yet to release its totals. Could L.A. actually win 50 games? History says almost surely not.

The 2020 schedule hasn't been released yet, but the Dodgers will play 40 games inside the NL West (10 each vs. the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Giants) and 20 against AL West teams (expected to be six vs. the Angels and then the remaining 14 spread out over the Astros, Mariners, Rangers and A's). FanGraphs lists the Dodgers' strength of schedule as tied for the fourth-easiest in MLB.

The Dodgers will have the designated hitter at their disposal the entire season, and arguably no NL team is better-suited to add the DH than them because they are so deep in hitters. L.A. added former AL MVP Mookie Betts to an already-stacked lineup this offseason in a trade with Boston.

Betts will play in the outfield because he's a terrific defender, but that allows Manager Dave Roberts to rotate other guys like Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy and AJ Pollock at DH. Roberts has said that he doesn't expect to have a full-time DH.

The Dodgers' rotation is also loaded with two former Cy Young winners in Clayton Kershaw and David Price (who also came over with Betts from the Red Sox) as well as the new ace, young right-hander Walker Buehler.

The SportsLine Projection Model also gives L.A. a league-high percentage of 79.6 to win its division and 92.4 to make the playoffs. At William Hill sportsbook, the Dodgers are +400 second-favorites on the moneyline odds to win the World Series (Yankees are +380 favorites) and the biggest division favorites in the majors at -450 to take the NL West for an eighth straight season.

The second-best West team per the Model is Arizona with a wins projection of 32.9. For a point of comparison, FanGraphs projects the Dodgers to win the West with a 38-22 record and the Padres second at 32-28. 

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