Sportsbook posts odds for first NFL coach to be fired

July is a time for optimism in the NFL, not just for the fans and players, but the coaches as well.

But a slow start to the season can alter mindsets in a hurry. 

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Coaching changes are often a go-to "big" move to make in the midst of a season of unmet expectations. Last year, Ben McAdoo was let go by the Giants after a 2-10 start. In 2016, it was the Rams' Jeff Fisher gone after starting 4-9. The year before, Miami let go of Joe Philbin just four games in.

But what about 2018? Which coach needs to start looking over their shoulder sooner rather than later?

The Greek Sportsbook has posted odds on which coach is shown the door first.

Who will be the first NFL coach to be fired in 2018?

Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers +125 (risk $100 to win $125)
Vance Joseph, Broncos +200
Adam Gase, Dolphins +650
Hue Jackson, Browns +800
Marvin Lewis, Bengals +800
Jay Gruden, Redskins +1500
Jason Garrett, Cowboys +2000
Bill O'Brien, Texans +3000
Todd Bowles, Jets +3000
Field +1500

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According to The Greek, it really comes down to the Buccaneers and Broncos as to which team makes the first move.

"We really see it as a two-horse race. And sharps have noticed this Bucs schedule, too," said The Greek sportsbook director Scott Kaminsky. "We've taken sharp money on Bucs regular season win total Under 6.5 with juice."

Koetter was a respectable 9-7 his first year in Tampa in 2016, but last season the team plummeted to 5-11. Now, QB Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games, the 31st-ranked defense wasn't given an overhaul and the Bucs face a tough schedule right off the bat.

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Tampa could easily get off to an 0-5 start. That might be a prime time to make a coaching change if management is inclined. 

The Broncos had Super Bowl aspirations in Joseph's first season as head coach last year. They had the NFL's third-ranked defense, but couldn't get quality play from the QB position and lost 10 of their final 12 games to finish 5-11. That was the team's worst mark since 2010 and second-worst season in 28 years.

Joseph fired most of his staff, and the team brought in Case Keenum to run the offense. With a defense that should again be among the league's best, Joseph may have to get off to a good start before GM John Elway has seen enough to make a change.

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PICK: Jackson, Lewis, Garrett and O'Brien are likely safe for the time being. 

Bowles and Gase probably have longer leashes as well. After a 10-6 season in 2015, Bowles has led the Jets to back-to-back 5-11 campaigns. But the squad has an up-and-coming nucleus and is expected to have the most cap space for 2019. Gase's Dolphins went from 10-6 his first year in 2016 to 6-10 last year, but the team didn't have its starting QB all of last year and he should get the chance to prove himself in Year 3.

Gruden is a bit of a dark horse, entering Year 5 in Washington to lead a team that hasn't progressed. The squad went from nine wins in 2015, to eight wins in 2016 to seven wins last year. The Redskins take on the Cardinals and Colts in their first two games – struggle there with new QB Alex Smith could spell the beginning of the end for Gruden's tenure.

I think Joseph lasts through the season, but if the Broncos aren't back in the playoffs, Joseph isn't back in Denver in 2019. Koetter is in trouble now. Take Koetter as the first coach to be let go in 2018, with Gruden as a value-based dark horse pick. 

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