Saquon Barkley 2023 NFL props, odds: Giants star running back threatens to sit out for season in contract dispute, as Le'Veon Bell once did

The name Le'Veon Bell is trending on Twitter today because two NFL star running backs who have been slapped with the franchise tag by their respective teams, the New York Giants' Saquon Barkley and Las Vegas Raiders' Josh Jacobs, have both made some noise about sitting out this season instead of playing under the tag, as Bell disastrously once did. We'll focus on Barkley today, who's set at Over/Under 1,000.5 rushing yards this season at DraftKings.

The Giants were able to sign quarterback Daniel Jones to a long-term deal this offseason, so they were able to save the franchise tag for Barkley, who would earn $10.1 million guaranteed under it playing this season. Players don't like playing under the tag despite the big one-year guarantee because they want a massive signing bonus as part of a long-term contract. Barkley and the Giants have until July 17 to come to an agreement on a long-term contract. If the two sides are unable to reach a deal, Barkley would play for the aforementioned figure.

"I think that's a conversation," Barkley said of potentially sitting out in 2023. "Like you said, that's a card I could play. That comes up in conversation if something don't get done by July 17. ... We got a little bit of time in between there. When that date comes up, then I'll have to sit down with my team, sit down with my family and make decisions. See what we're going to do. What's the next game plan? What's the next move? I trust in the Giants that we could get something done."

One could understand the Giants being a bit wary of a long-term deal. Barkley had been glaring injury-prone following his 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year season. The former Penn State star and No. 2 overall draft pick did stay healthy in 2022 and rushed for a career-high 1,312 yards to go with 10 touchdowns, while catching 57 passes for 338 yards, as New York made the playoffs for the first time since he was drafted. 

Barkley has accused the Giants of making "misleading" and "untruthful" leaks about negotiations, with reports he previously turned down deals with annual average values of $12.5 million to $13 million.

"It's misleading, for sure," Barkley said after hosting a free youth football camp in Jersey City. "For those reports to come out and try to make me look like I'm greedy or whatever, that's not even close to being the truth."

Sure, Barkley could sit out the season, but he holds no leverage because the Giants would still own his rights for 2024. Giants GM Joe Schoen said in March that he's comfortable with Barkley playing on the franchise tag. How much does Barkley really think he can get elsewhere? Miles Sanders' four-year, $25.4 million deal with the Panthers was the most lucrative contract signed by a running back this offseason.

Bell had a monster 2017 season with Pittsburgh but refused to play 2018 on the tag. He sat out that season and signed a big deal with the Jets ahead of 2019 but lost all that 2017 money, was never close to the same player, and never saw all that Jets money before being released. He has admitted he shouldn't have taken 2018 off.

Because Barkley hasn't signed the tag, he will not be attending this week's mandatory minicamp – he's technically not under contract, so he can't attend. Barkley could sign a participation waiver excusing the Giants from liability should he get hurt, but no NFL star is doing that. Barkley is +1400 to lead the NFL in rushing yards, which no Giant has done in the Super Bowl era. FanDuel has a yes-only special at +125 that Barkley rushes for at least 10 TDs again this season. 

The Giants open at home with a Sunday-night showdown with Dallas on Sept. 10 as 3-point underdogs. The SportsLine Projection Model has Barkley rushing for 65 yards and 0.40 TDs. His backup is Matt Breida. 

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